MANILA, Philippines - The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) foresees a “more volatile” commodities market in the years ahead, even as it assures that it does not see a repeat of the 2007-2008 food crisis at this time.
However, according to FAO assistant director-general for economic and social development Hafez Ghanem, the FAO is “closely” monitoring the world food situation, acknowledging that “the picture could, however, change if there is another shock to supply, for example due to more bad weather, or if government policies lead to increased anxiety in the market, provoking panic buying.”
Even so, FAO is calling for a special meeting on Sept. 24 of the Inter-Government Group (IGG) on Grains and IGG on Rice to discuss the current situation and what countries should do in the medium-term to enhance their preparedness for future episodes of volatility.
The Philippines, which is a rice-growing country and is now the world’s No.1 importer of rice, is expected to send a delegation to attend the IGG on Rice.
Global rice production this year, according to the FAO, has been revised downward and now stands at 467 million tons, five million tons lower than the June 2010 forecast.
Much of the revision, the FAO said, was the consequence of lowering of the forecast for the crop about to be harvested in Pakistan, where floods have hit the two major producing provinces, but also revisions in China, Egypt, India, Laos and the Philippines.
Despite the adjustment, FAO assured the new production estimate would still translate to a three percent increase in world rice output from 2009, a historical record.
Global supplies (production plus opening stocks) are also foreseen to be much more ample than they have been for the past three years.
As such, the FAO said although prospects for world rice consumption and stocks in 2011 were negatively affected by the downward revision in world output, they are still foreseen to increase compared to the 2009 estimates.
The FAO warned though that floods in Pakistan, the fourth largest rice exporter in 2009, could negatively affect rice trade this year and in 2011, with international rice flows foreseen to fall from 30 million tons in 2010 to 29 million tons next year.
The FAO rice outlook is of special concern to the Philippines which has become a net importer of rice and which imports its rice from Vietnam, Pakistan and Thailand.