When will we be the next Bangkok?

I realize we are a very patient people with the stomach for long suffering. It took over 300 years for the anger within our people to burst into a revolution against an oppressive colonial power. More recently, it took two decades before we had enough of the Marcos martial rule. And yes, we endured Ate Glue for almost a decade too.

But I don’t think our ruling elite should get too smug and complacent. Times have changed and things are happening faster now. Reading the reports of the unfortunate events in Bangkok should serve as sufficient reminder that people today are no longer as patient and meek about social iniquities. They see it, they feel it and they do something about it.

 According to a CNN report, “a rift between Bangkok’s economic elite and the growing clout of Thailand’s rural poor is feeding a unique divide. Class barriers and class differences are now at the heart of the conflict, the Bangkok governor told CNN. This has evolved into something much more than complaints about Thaksin being ousted. It’s becoming more about why two percent of the population gains 80 percent of the GDP,” a political analyst told CNN.

And modern technology is accentuating the divide. The same political analyst told CNN “it’s impossible to overstate how important the ability of the rural poor to communicate beyond government censors has been in this protest.  Everyone has cell phones, everyone has access to the Internet, to Twitter; the community radio stations in rural areas have been very active.”

Thinking of the events in Bangkok as we prepare for the ascent of our new government next month can’t help but give the message that we have to get it right this time. We have wasted enough time and enough resources over the past decades trying to get the right dose of Western style democracy, free market capitalism and narrow tribal politics. People are getting exasperated. Those who can, vote with their feet and leave the country. Those left behind report rising incidence of hunger.

I get the impression from conversations with various people of different persuasions as well as from reading postings in blogs and social networks that the Pinoy is indeed facing crunch time. We cannot go on indefinitely with our current mode of governance. President-to-be Noynoy Aquino is probably our last chance to make the “Philippine model” work.

Nations are desperately seeking models of development that would give them an advantage in a global economy that’s painfully redefining itself. The Economist last week wrote about “a China model (or ‘Beijing consensus’ as it was dubbed in 2004 by Joshua Cooper Ramo, an American consultant, playing on the idea of a declining ‘Washington consensus’).”

What is the China model? The notion of a China model, The Economist observed, involves one-party rule, an eclectic approach to free markets and a big role for state enterprise being among its commonly identified ingredients. Indeed, China’s continued rapid growth continues to amaze both the West and the emerging economies. The Economist quotes a Western observer, “China is seen as the world’s largest billboard advertisement for the new alternative of going capitalist and staying autocratic.”

In fact, within Asean, there is an even better model that has proven as effective as China’s but without the Communist Party. The Singapore miracle has proven itself to be truly amazingly efficient but it has only been tried in a city state with a population that’s less than a third of Metro Manila’s. Malaysia has proven a similar approach with a bigger population than Singapore but at the expense of favoring dominant Malays over other racial minorities.

Thailand’s monarchic democracy was doing well until social tensions erupted in deathly violence. With the respected King sickly and well into his 80s, Thailand is ripe for a new political and economic order.

Under its current President, Indonesia is probably on to something that works that is democratic and essentially free market. But can they sustain the momentum in the face of militant jihadists and ethnic violence?

By all accounts, we have what it takes to move on and take off. The Financial Times observed, our “economic performance, while not stellar, has been reasonable thanks to the $17 billion in remittances expatriates send back each year. To be sure, that reflects the economy’s inability to create jobs. But it is a sizable chunk of money that has underpinned domestic consumption, and could kick-start a better economic trajectory if supportive policies are put in place.”

The Philippine malaise cannot go on much longer. What is happening in Thailand now should worry us all. It is not just a protest instigated by an ousted Prime Minister. As the CNN analyst describes it, it is class warfare… a battle for supremacy between the Thai masa and the Bangkok elites who traditionally control political power.

Former Prime Minister Thaksin is something like Erap. He is well loved by the masa. It may be because of how he lavished state aid and attention on them while in power. Like Erap, Thaksin is disliked by the elite. And like Erap, he was ousted on corruption charges. But unlike Erap, he had chosen exile and with the help of money stashed away abroad, he had the resources to finance his fight back to power.

Erap chose the ballot as his route back to power. And he almost did it. If Noynoy didn’t run for President, Erap will be back in Malacañang next month. A significant part of the masa must really love Tita Cory that much to give their votes to Noynoy instead of Erap. None of the other candidates could have defeated Erap… not even Manny Villar who claims masa roots.

We are perhaps lucky that Erap is more responsible than Thaksin. During People Power 2 that saw his ouster, Erap was not ready to risk bloodshed and the Republic itself in a siege similar to what we are seeing in Bangkok today. But I do not doubt Erap’s ability to call on the masses to do something similar if he is so inclined. Given the rising poverty rate and the number of people going hungry, we are ripe for a Bangkok type class warfare.

This is why we must have our priorities right. Politics aside, Noynoy is probably our last chance to get things right. It is not enough that Noynoy doesn’t have a dishonest bone in his body. He must be effective. Noynoy must choose his cabinet and close advisers well. If he fumbles and it becomes obvious that he and his cabinet don’t have what it takes, the masa have a ready alternative, just a heartbeat away.

I know Vice President-to-be Jojo Binay has said Noynoy can sleep well with him as spare tire. But things may end up being beyond Jojo’s wishes. Jojo Binay is now the new Erap, the one the masa will go to in case they get tired waiting for Noynoy to make a difference in their lives. Jojo is truly of the masa, looks like one of them but is well educated, politically savvy and has the inclination to rough it up with the illustrados in our ruling elite.

Thus, Noynoy must show he can lead and make a difference within his first hundred days. Otherwise, the social tensions will exacerbate as more people go hungry and Manila could follow Bangkok in a kind of bloody class warfare we are now seeing on our television screens. One party rule could follow as the masa seeks power to redeem themselves from centuries of social abuse.

Noynoy is in all probability, our last chance. He has to do all he can to make sure he will succeed. It is in our interest to see him succeed.

Wrong answer

From a news report: 

Asked why Aquino entertained Pacquiao despite his support for Villar during the elections, the source said, “He’s just very polite.”

That sounds a bit condescending at best, still bitter about the last campaign at worse.

The Aquino source should have responded instead: “The election is over. President-elect Noynoy welcomes everyone who comes in friendship and offers support for the big task ahead of us. Besides, Manny Pacquiao is a national treasure and Noynoy like most Filipinos is a fan.”

People who speak on behalf of the president-elect should be extremely careful how they respond to questions. They should not betray any ill feelings from the past campaign. Noynoy is President of all Pinoys now, including those who worked for rival candidates.

Lucky guy

Got this from the net.

Defeated candidate: A person who is lucky because he doesn’t have to explain why he didn’t keep campaign promises.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. This and some past columns can also be viewed at www.boochanco.com