Economists see 2010 inflation hitting 4.8%

MANILA, Philippines - Private sector economists see inflation accelerating to 4.8 percent this year from 3.2 percent as the sustained rally in global commodity prices would continue to exert inflationary pressures.

A survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) among private sector economists and analysts for December showed inflation would be within the target of between 3.5 percent and 5.5 percent set by the central bank this year as well as three percent and five percent for 2011.

The survey of non-government analysts and economists showed that the mean inflation forecast was 4.8 percent for this year and 4.7 percent for next year.

“The BSP’s survey of private economists expects inflation to remain within the target ranges for 2010 and 2011,” said BSP’s Antonio Centura of the Department of Economic Research.

Centura said analysts expect the rally in global commodity prices to exert inflationary pressures.

He also cited unfavorable base effects from low inflation numbers in the previous year would register higher inflation readings in 2010.

Think-tank IDEA sees inflation hitting 6.8 percent followed by Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. with a range of 4.7 percent to 5.6 percent, Royal Bank of Scotland with 5.4 percent, HSBC with 5.1 percent as well as Philippine Equity Partners Inc. and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch with 4.9 percent.

The survey showed that ING Bank and the Metrobank Group see inflation averaging 4.8 percent this year followed by Economists.com with 4.6 percent, ATR KimEng Securities with 4.5 percent, Banco de Oro with 3.5 percent, and Standard Chartered Bank with 3.3 percent.

“Based on the probability distribution provided by nine respondents, there is a 33 percent chance that average inflation for 2010 could be within 4.1 percent to five percent,” the BSP survey stated.

The BSP said its survey indicated an average forecast inflation rate of 4.3 percent in the first quarter of the year and 4.8 percent in the second quarter of the year.

Centura said economists believed that the continued strengthening of the peso against the US dollar as well as the moderate demand conditions would dampen inflationary pressures.

BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo sees inflation kicking up to five percent in the second and third quarters because of the base effect.