'The Joker is wild'

In gambling, the ‘Joker’ is always a wildcard that can give any player the advantage over others. People who said Joseph Estrada was a joke when he said he was running for president may now find that the joke is on them. That’s because Erap continues to have a solid following as seen in his 15 percent rating in the latest SWS survey even while the Supreme Court still has to rule whether he is eligible to run in the May elections or not.

The invitation of the former president to the National Security Council meeting the other day in Malacañang – which Erap graciously accepted – is also an indication of the kind of influence that he continues to wield to this day. Perhaps because of her low ratings, GMA finds it beneficial to have Joseph Estrada by her side. 

And if there’s one thing that the Erap was able to achieve after losing more than six years of his life in detention, it’s the fact that he was able to reinvent himself, successfully getting back into the political mainstream. No doubt he has managed to parlay his popularity into considerable political influence, as seen in his number three ranking among presidentiables.  

But the big question now is: Will Joseph Estrada pursue his candidacy to the end, or will pragmatism reign with him withdrawing his candidacy in the crucial weeks before May 10 to throw his support behind another candidate as some are speculating? Should the latter scenario prevail, the next question would be: Who will Erap Estrada support?

Some say the potential beneficiary of an Estrada withdrawal is Liberal Party candidate Noynoy Aquino because of the high respect that Erap had shown the late president Cory Aquino, whom he visited in the hospital without letting anyone know. The Aquino family particularly Kris appreciated his gesture, and she even publicly admitted that she respects Estrada “so much” because of the way he treated their mother. Although Estrada is now running against Noynoy, Kris says their family has maintained good relations with Erap who continues to send fruits to the family like he used to when Mrs. Aquino was in the hospital.

On the other hand, Estrada had been told by many of his close advisers that members of civil society groups and businessmen closely identified with Aquino and the Liberal Party will never accept him. As a matter of fact, a Makati businessman – a staunch Aquino supporter – reportedly said, “We don’t want a convicted plunderer anywhere near us. We don’t need him.”

On the other hand, Nacionalista Party standard bearer Manny Villar has, on several occasions, repeatedly asked for forgiveness from Estrada for his role in the former president’s impeachment, and even visited him several times in Tanay. Erap however is still wary about joining the camp of Villar. Nevertheless, Manny says they welcome Erap at the NP. If one could remember, the Nacionalista Party had also been courting Jinggoy Estrada to become Villar’s running mate before Joseph Estrada declared his intention to run.

Jinggoy for his part has consistently been at the top of surveys for senatorial candidates. According to a nationwide Pulse Asia survey conducted from Dec. 8 to 10, Jinggoy received 55.1 percent, similar to the results of an earlier Social Weather Stations senatorial survey showing him at the top of the pack with 56 percent. Although Jinggoy has come on his own and impressed a lot of people with his stance on controversial issues as well as his impassioned and well-expressed defense of his father, there is no denying that his election to the Senate had as much to do with the popularity and influence of his father. As Erap Estrada had pointed out, the election of Jinggoy and his mother, Dr. Loi Ejercito (while the former president was in detention) should be enough proof that Erap’s popularity among the Filipino masses has not diminished despite his incarceration.

Noynoy Aquino may be leading at this time but the LP camp should be cognizant of the fact that Villar is slowly narrowing the gap. They must not also forget that Erap has the capability to tilt the balance in favor of the candidate he would support should he eventually decide to withdraw from the race. After all, he has the so-called swing vote on account of his solid following as shown in survey results. 

Those people from the elite who were laughing at Joseph Estrada may not be laughing so much now. They may not find it so funny anymore to hear Erap admit with candor that he missed being in Malacañang, or that he would “come back” as president if it is his destiny to do so. Because if one were to gauge the current situation and the way Joseph Estrada is mobbed anywhere he goes, and that he continues to wield considerable political influence, one could even conclude that the former president has indeed “come back.” 

After all is said and done, the wildcard in this whole elections may turn out to be no other than Joseph Estrada himself.

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I received an email inviting me to the launching of Kabbalah teacher Yehuda Berg’s book, The Power to Change Everything on January 18 at the Rockwell Tent. The author will also hold a lecture where he will discuss the problematic areas of politics, religion, economy and the environment and point out people’s collective “blind spots.” Sounds like an interesting topic even for non-Kabbalah followers.

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