2009 will be awesome!

That was some year we just had. It is one year people couldn’t wait to forget. Our first working day finds us full of hope about what 2009 will bring, fully aware that the worse of 2008 isn’t quite over and will spill into 2009. Indeed many economists say we won’t see real relief on the economy until 2010 or even 2011.

After reading a lot of economic forecasts that were understandably inconclusive, I decided to have a talk with my astrologer friend. Because she could be pretty scary (she predicted among other things the explosion at Glorietta many years before it happened), I only wanted her to tell me the general lay of the land. What should we expect in 2009 given the turbulence of 2008? After our talk, I got the impression that astrology and economics share some things and I don’t just mean the ambiguity of some of their predictions and their technical language.

For one thing, astrologers and economists talk about cycles. “Z” my astrologer friend of long standing, puts it beautifully: “to study cycles is to realize that events occur within a continuum of time. Every event, in effect, carries within it the seeds of forthcoming events. The astrologer’s task is to determine the starting point of current operative cycles to know at what point in the cycle a  corporation, country, or individual stands at any given moment — in order to map out the direction to which it is headed and predict the outcome of the ‘journey’.”

Economists talk of cycles in these terms: “Predictable long-term pattern changes in national income. Traditional business cycles undergo four stages: expansion, prosperity, contraction, and recession. After a recessionary phase, the expansionary phase can start again. The phases of the business cycle are characterized by changing employment, industrial productivity, and interest rates. Some economists believe that stock price trends precede business cycle stages.”

Kuya Kim explains in street language what the astrologers and economists are saying about cycles, ang buhay ay weather weather lang.

When I asked “Z” what’s in store for 2009, she explained everything in terms of “sub-cycles of crests and troughs of the various economic cycles from now till 2024 – some of which began more than a century ago and beyond.” It is in this sense that “Z” thinks 2009 will be a pivotal year — memorable and significant for the massive economic changes it will bring upon the world.

2009 will be different from 2008, “Z” explains, because numerous astrological configurations and signatures not normally seen in other years occur in 2009. According to “Z”, new cycles begin in earnest now — the very same cycles that, when they last unreeled, wrought havoc in world markets which led to the Depression in the 1930’s and precipitated World Wars I and II.  

For those of us stuck in the stock market of 2008, 2009 brings only limited hope. According to “Z”, 2009 begins the waning cycle of stock exchanges and investment markets that begun its waxing phase in the early 1980s, peaked in the late 1990s, and will be completed by 2028. In other words, there may be short rallies here and there but the exuberance of the market of the last few years will no longer be experienced in the magnitude and duration that we saw. As “Z” puts it, rallies will occur but lower and lower from the levels wherein they started their descent.

In more specific terms, “Z” sees continued turmoil in world bourses and financial investment houses in 2009 — and beyond. Recovery will take longer than economic analysts, using traditional tools of predicting market movements, forecast. The parameters and models they use will be outdated and need to be discarded, “Z” says. New ways of looking at things and thinking out-of-the-box in a most drastic and revolutionary way is the only way for them to go if effective solutions are to be found at all.

“Z” does not think talking up the market will do any good. We have to go through a long dark tunnel of financial purgatory before seeing any real light of economic redemption.

“Z” also made some predictions of general trends in global terms. Globalization is over, she says, at least as the world knew it in the cycle just past. Governments will turn more insular and more concerned with providing basic necessities for its hungry, jobless, desperate masses.

“Z” sees a waning of terrorism based on religious fundamentalism because groups will worry more about survival. The fight will be for food. There will be outbreaks of hostility in the usual trouble spots where extremists operate, “Z” concedes, but these will be isolated incidents — just as it was in the past cycle.

“Z” sees more failures of banks and investment houses in the global environment, not to mention hedge funds. More revelations of accounting shenanigans and malpractice will come to light. This cycle acts as a cosmic plunger, she says. Shady, if not downright criminal, banking practices will surface — like scum. The collapse of ailing financial institutions will escalate in number and speed as the cycle runs its course. The survival of the worthy ones will be a result of something akin to Darwinian “natural selection.”

But in the face of the negatives, “Z” sees some positives. Everything, she says, will seem like bad news. But even the Depression of the 1930s (and the financial panics of late 1700s and 1800s) brought positive change to the markets and allowed the progress that brought the world the prosperity and standard of living many now enjoy.

“Z” takes a very philosophical view of transpiring events. “Seasons, as the rotation of the Earth shows, follow a rational cycle. So, now: first — Winter, the “return of the Sun.” The Earth on the Winter Solstice (longest night of the year, after which the days get longer as the earth begins its northward journey around the sun). Winter clears the ground for planting new seed. .Then, Spring: a new beginning. The evolutionary spiral is ever upwards — though sometimes it looks otherwise to those unaware of, or choose to, ignore nature’s cycles.

I have known “Z” for many years now. She was a former journalist who took an interest in astrology and took it up seriously to the point of actually taking and passing an international credentials test for it. She explained to me that astrology is mathematical but at the same time requires a keen sense of history. It is not unusual for “Z” to crosscheck her findings by doing historical research in various libraries and archives.

I decided to feature today some of the insights “Z” unselfishly shared with me not because I believe or do not believe in astrology. I am incurably curious about anything that offers an explanation of what makes the world go around. With the proper perspective, I don’t think it conflicts with my religion. After all, we yearly celebrate the feast of Three Kings, the best known astrologers in the Bible who predicted the time and place of the birth of our Savior. The Bible calls them “wise men”. If astrology was good enough then, maybe was even one of God’s ways of communicating with man, it must hold some insights too that can benefit us now.

But what is astrology doing in a business column? I know for a fact that many top businessmen consult astrologers like “Z” before making any major decisions from inaugurating an office to making a major investment to choice of partners. In a sense, there is an element of faith involved. But there is also a large element of faith involved when one takes in the stuff churned by the dismal science of economics.

Some articles about the present crisis say many economists are probably working on the wrong assumptions in their present models. That explains why they are having difficulty figuring out what’s happening and what to expect now. Quantitative models of Nobel Prize winning economists have failed spectacularly in our recent past (LTCM comes to mind). The once great Alan Greenspan himself had to apologize for being mistaken about his assumptions.

In the end, no matter how quantitative they may try to make modern economics, it is simply difficult to predict human behavior. It is no longer tenable to assume consumers will always make rational decisions on what’s best for them, as recent experience and adherents of the relatively new field of behavioral economics will tell you. The environment has drastically changed as we enter a new cycle and it is constantly changing.

Then again, I don’t claim to understand astrology and economics as well as the professionals in those fields. I just read enough of what the more knowledgeable of them say and figure out who seems to make sense and build from there.

May our New Year be a lot happier and infinitely more prosperous than the last! “Z” says it will be awesome!

New year

Atty. Sonny Pulgar sent in these thoughts.

Sa lahat ng KAIBIGAN kong nagmamahal sa akin, SALAMAT!

Sa mga GUMAGO sa akin, may araw rin kayo, mga gago!

Sa mga NAGPALIGAYA sa akin… sa uulitin, ha? Galingan n’yo pa!

Sa mga NANIRA sa akin, sige lang! Walang gamot sa insecurity!

Sa taong MINAHAL ko, SWERTE mo!

Sa mga AYAW sa akin, ok na rin sa akin!

At sa mga tropa kong mahal ako, mahal ko rin kayo…

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]