Toyota forecasts first loss in 70 years

NAGOYA, Japan (AP) — Toyota has hit a speedbump.

The Japanese auto giant has forecast its first operating loss in 70 years, more fallout from the severe slump in vehicle sales that has nearly claimed two Detroit automakers and raised questions over when the US market, Toyota’s largest, will hit bottom.

Despite the setback, the automaker is still poised to pull ahead of its main US rival, General Motors Corp., to become the No. 1 world carmaker in 2008, industry watchers said. Toyota reported it sold 7.05 million cars worldwide during the first nine months of the year, compared with 6.66 million for GM for the same period.

“They’re going to grow and outstrip General Motors, there’s no way around that,” said George Magliano, analyst with IHS Global Insight.

Toyota Motor Corp., which is committed to zero layoffs, will continue cutting production to weather the downturn. The automaker also lowered its global vehicle sales forecast for the second time this year and said it was putting ambitious expansion plans on hold, in large part because of a precipitous drop in demand in the US.

“The tough times are hitting us far faster, wider and deeper than expected,” Toyota president Katsuaki Watanabe told a gloomy news conference at the company’s Nagoya, Japan, headquarters. “This is an unprecedented crisis requiring urgent action.”

Sona Iliffe-Moon, a spokeswoman for the automaker’s US arm, said the company has not had any layoffs since the 1950s.

“As a result of that experience, it became a part of our culture to ensure employment and stability for employees,” Iliffe-Moon said

Toyota had reported strong growth in recent years, boosted by heavy demand for its fuel-efficient models like the Camry sedan and Prius gas-electric hybrid.

But Watanabe said a severe drop in demand, especially in North America, which accounts for one-third of vehicle sales, and profit erosion from a surging yen were too much for Japan’s No. 1 automaker. Overall US auto sales fell to their lowest level in 26 years last month.

“The change that has hit the world economy is of a critical scale that comes once in 100 years,” Watanabe said.

Toyota said it expects an operating loss of ¥150 billion ($1.66 billion) for the fiscal year ending in March, compared with an operating profit of ¥2.27 trillion ($25.2 billion) a year earlier.

Toyota said it would still post a small net profit of 50 billion yen ($555 million), thanks to outside dividend income, down from year-earlier earnings of ¥1.7 trillion ($18.89 billion). But operating income is seen as the best reflection of its core business.

The announcement reflected a dramatic change of fortune for the iconic company, which in recent years had outlined ambitious expansion plans and weathered an industry slowdown much better than its US rivals.

In its forecast, Toyota lowered the number of vehicles it expects to sell globally this calendar year to 8.96 million, down four percent from last year. Earlier this year, Toyota had projected worldwide sales of 9.5 million vehicles.

Tsuyoshi Mochimaru, auto analyst for Barclays Capital in Tokyo, warned worse may be ahead.

US auto sales aren’t expected to start recovering until late 2009, and the dollar — already at a 13-year low against the yen — could lag further, he said. A strong yen hurts results because overseas profits must be converted into the Japanese currency.

“The problem is next year,” said Mochimaru. “It’s unmistakable that things are extremely tough for Toyota.”

Watanabe and other Toyota executives repeated a recent announcement that expansion plans will be on hold, including a new plant in Mississippi and projects in India.

The automaker will focus on hybrids and small cars, and invest in environmentally-friendly technology to prepare for long-term growth, officials said.