Hold the hoopla on biofuels

It is unfortunate that Sen. Miguel Zubiri chose to resort to innuendoes in the current debate on bio-fuels. The senator accused those who are critical of the current approach to government’s biofuels program as being part of a well funded smear campaign of Big Oil.

If that’s how the senator wants to play, maybe the critics can return the favor. They can probably ask the senator if he has absolutely no conflict of interest on the matter. It is after all, easy to assume that there are potentially huge commissions for the purchase of big ticket biofuel processing facilities (distilleries, etc.) from abroad. There are also reports about a family farm in Bukidnon going into biofuel and presumably to enjoy tax perks he authored.

But none of these innuendo throwing will do anyone any good. The neophyte senator must learn that when we are debating public issues, one must keep cool and presume the best of intentions from everyone unless proven otherwise. One must sink or swim on the basis of the validity of issues raised.

This is particularly true in this case because the senator was reacting to statements made by learned academic sources. And even when a politician like Rep. Roy Golez started asking questions too, he deserves to get responsive answers.

And Roy has good reasons to ask. For me, the most basic concern I have is the abundance of hype and hoopla and a scarcity of serious planning on the part of government. In the recent Energy Summit, the role of agriculture in our energy self reliance efforts seemed like a mere afterthought.

I feel uncomfortable that all the movement on biofuels being reported has to do with proposals to spend large sums of money on big projects even in the absence of an overall plan. I am afraid we are all going to end up with a lot of so called start-up facilities, a lot of idle distilleries and a lot of innocent investors with nothing to show for it after all had been said and done.

Such waste of money on white elephants always happens in this country. It enriches a few, wastes capital and other resources that could have been productively used elsewhere. Worse of all, this PR approach to a biofuels program creates false hope all around.

I am cautious and even skeptical about this government’s biofuels programs because I know it isn’t as easy to implement successfully as people like Sen. Zubiri seem to suggest. I have been there, I have done that. You cannot pass a law mandating a certain percentage of biofuel in our regular fuel and assume that is going to happen. We probably now have a law that is impossible to implement. The tight schedule under the law probably gives it a sense of urgency on paper. But I don’t see action on the ground that would make that possible. Indeed, I have talked to senior officials at the Agriculture department who share my doubts.

For ethanol, I recall that even in the 1980s, we were talking of some 250,000 new hectares of land planted to sugar destined exclusively for conversion to fuel alcohol. That is supposed to displace just 15 percent of gasoline consumption over 10 years. The volume of our gasoline consumption now must have multiplied several times over compared to that of the 80s necessitating even more alcohol to be produced.

I remember my boss then, the late Energy Secretary Ronnie Velasco, telling us that opening new lands for large scale planting of any crop takes time. He cited his experience in the Dole plantation in Polomolok, South Cotabato which he started. Velasco said it took him seven years from the time of project conception and he only had to work on 10,000 hectares.

The Biofuels Act mandates a minimum one-percent biodiesel blend and five-percent bioethanol blend in all diesel and gasoline fuels. So maybe, you don’t need as much new land planted to sugarcane as we projected for a 15-percent blend during the 80s. I am more optimistic about the biodiesel blend using coconut because it is doable now. But if the mandated blend for both is this limited, is it worth the effort? It won’t even make a dent in our gasoline and fuel consumption requirements.

Then, there are basic questions we must ask about biofuels. Are biofuels the most efficient way of developing an alternative to petroleum? In other words, is it worth it? This was precisely the point raised by some Nobel Prize winners that Zubiri reacted angrily to.

“When you calculate how much of the sun’s energy is stored in the plants, it’s below one percent,” Dr. Hartmut Michel, the 1998 Nobel Prize winner for chemistry, who was recently in Manila for a talk, said at a local forum. In other words, we may end up spending more energy than we can get from these biofuels.

”When you convert into biofuel, you add fertilizer, and then harvest the plants. There’s no real energy gained in biofuel,” said Michel, 59, whose prize-winning research with two other chemists dealt with the process of photosynthesis.

Michel further pointed out that producing biofuel would sometimes entail clearing a forest, a process that destroys biodiversity and emits more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. At least on this count, our forest areas have been cleared long ago. But will our biofuel plants thrive on soil that has also long been eroded of top soil that contains the nutrients?

In the case of jatropha, there is simply too much talk and too little action going on that will definitively tell us its true potentials as a biofuel on a commercial scale. I was just looking over an impressive and comprehensive book on Biofuels from Philippine plants given to me by former newsman Mike Patolot. After seeing all the potential plants, I am not sure if jatropha is the best bet we have. I want to hear from the UP Los Baños scientists who worked on the book what they honestly think.

I get nervous when politicians and bureaucrats start talking big without clear plans and scientific basis because money will surely be wasted. I remember what happened to ipil ipil, which was our so called energy tree in the past. Problems of mono culture and worse, difficulty of commercialization for whatever reason, dance in my head.

And let us not get started with the now equally noisy debates about the growing problem of food versus fuel dilemma. The Economist has warned about a coming era of agflation or inflation of food prices. Land used to be planted to wheat is now planted to corn in the US to produce fuel alcohol. This creates a shortage of wheat and that is why the price of pan de sal has been steadily increasing lately.

A comprehensive plan of action for biofuels is urgently needed. It should include research on so-called second generation biofuels which would use waste products rather than food commodities like sugar. Or something even more basic: should we be thinking of sugar rather than another crop like sweet sorghum? There are those who say sweet sorghum is better for producing fuel alcohol. What are their comparative economics?

Something must also be said about trying such plants like jatropha on a pilot or experimental basis before press releases are issued about plans of PNOC to spend billions of pesos that could mislead potential investors into believing it is a sure thing. In creating hoopla around jatropha, are they saying it is the best possible choice to invest in for biodiesel? I don’t think we know that for sure as of now.

It is easy to get caught in the euphoria for biofuel and treat those who ask questions as if they are being unpatriotic or worse. There is much we don’t know yet, specially on the economics of all these potential biofuels. I am afraid a sharp drop in oil prices, which cannot be discounted, may render our biofuels uneconomic and bankrupt early investors. There has to be solid scientific and financial basis when these products are promoted.

I believe biofuels form part of the answer in our search for alternatives to oil. But let our programs be scientifically based and carefully planned. Let us do our homework first and hold the all the hype and hoopla for now.

Screwed

Here’s Dr. Ernie E.

The judge asked the prostitute, “So when did you realize you were raped?”

The prostitute replied, wiping her tears, “When the check bounced.”

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]