Oil price bubble about to burst

Hopefully, some analysts are correct in saying that current sky high oil prices are on the way down. A sharp fall is just ahead, if the views of analysts who talked to Businessweek last week are to be believed. Analysts, Businessweek reports, say that the oil market looks overheated, and a number of factors could puncture the price bubble.

That’s not difficult to believe. It is well known that speculators have been playing a key role in driving up crude oil prices this year. While global demand remains strong for now, worries about an economic slowdown, lower demand arising from the spiraling prices could prompt speculators to flee the market quickly. If that happens, prices could drop even more dramatically than they’ve risen.

Who really knows what will happen next? According to Businessweek, some analysts say the psychological impact of $100 oil could mark the beginning of a slip in prices. “The professionals will get out of the market at $98.50 or $98.99,” Peter Beutel, president of the energy risk management firm Cameron Hanover, told Businessweek. He thinks the oil market is due for a correction and the serious threat of a recession could take 40 percent off oil prices.

If oil prices are trying to mimic the bad old days of the 80s, prices will start to fall as demand responds to price signals. But for now, all these can be just wishful thinking. We are being made to choose between rising oil prices but fairly bullish economies or a drastic fall in oil prices brought about by economies in recession.

Then again, no new major oil field has been discovered in the last 40 years. With increased demand from emerging economies, the long-term outlook for oil will have to be beyond the $100 barrel.

And if you still think $100 oil is scandalous: the New York Times points out “even at today’s highs, oil is cheaper than imported bottled water, which would cost $180 a barrel, or milk, at $150 a barrel.” Indeed, oil is too precious to burn as fuel and the earlier we find viable alternatives, the better for us all.

Knowledge Channel

Last Friday, the USAID and the Knowledge Channel Foundation turned over educational television (ETV) facilities to the San Isidro Elementary School in Midsayap, North Cotabato. The school received satellite TV infrastructure under the program “Television Education for the Advancement of Muslim Mindanao” or TEAM-Mindanao.

The program has so far provided 150 public schools in conflict-affected areas in ARMM and Regions 9 and 12 with access to ETV programs covering the DepEd’s basic learning competencies in Math, Science and English. Some 78,529 students are enjoying the benefits of Knowledge Channel in the most remote and isolated areas of Mindanao in 31 municipalities within eight provinces including Basilan, Sulu and Tawi Tawi. And the positive results of this intervention are starting to show in the academic performance of the pupils.

In the province of Zamboanga Sibugay, all 15 schools provided with KCh in that province have posted significant increases across all subject areas in the Division Achievement Tests. KCh also encouraged greater parent involvement in the education of their children.

Among notable successes was the Habib Moin Anduhol Elementary School, which posted a significant increase in its Mean Percentage Score (MPS) from 25th place (43.03 percent) in the Division in 2005-2006 to 7th place (61.34 percent) in 2006-2007. Bangkerohan Elementary School also showed an increase in its MPS and rose from 27th place (50.35 percent) in 2005-2006 to 1st place (68 percent) in 2006-2007.

Parent Teachers and Community Associations of 16 schools in North Cotabato, Maguindanao, Zamboanga Sibugay and Tawi Tawi also raised funds on their own to buy a total of 45 additional television sets for their schools.   This is no mean feat, considering that all of these communities are mired in poverty and belong to 5th and 6th class municipalities. 

Some local government units have also supported the project by paying their schools’ electric bills, improving KCh viewing rooms by repainting or decorating these, providing floor mats for children to sit on, and most important, maintaining and ensuring the safety of the ETV infrastructure with the help of barangay tanods.

I guess the success of KCh was a major inspiration of DepEd Secretary Jesli Lapus in launching his CyberEd program. KCh showed children as well as their teachers in the most remote islands can learn from educational television like their Manila counterparts, in effect equalizing teaching and learning opportunities.

This makes me think that perhaps a more viable approach for Secretary Lapus is to follow the KCh strategy and pilot test his CyberEd program in stages, emphasizing first the development of software instead of committing to spend a horrible amount of money on high tech delivery infrastructure.

It seems to me that it is more important to first develop those so-called “super teachers” as well as DepEd’s ability to produce teaching modules. The modules can be tested by airing them in KCh and reproducing them in CDs for distribution to schools not yet reached by KCh. The so called two way satellite-based system is after all, not yet needed at this stage, nor is it practical given its high cost and DepEd’s other priorities.

The expensive satellite system can come in later after DepEd has demonstrated the need for it and its capability to manage it. But the concept behind CyberEd, improving the quality of instruction in all public schools, is valid. KCh has just proven it and KCh operates on a shoestring budget… certainly nowhere near the P26 billion CyberEd requires.

Bad air days

A reader from San Juan posted this reaction to an email sent by Ramon Guilatco about how bad the air we breathe in Metro Manila is.

AMEN RAMON ... Help HELP help HELP… the air is choking everyone to death. The brain needs some oxygen and this is why half of Manila’s population seems brain dead. There isn’t enough oxygen in the air in Makati to give your brain enough oxygen. The brain only has enough oxygen to keep the brain working to keep your heart beating.

Very little deep thought processing or very analytical thinking can be done unless there is enough oxygen to make the brain work 100  percent. The executives in Makati are brain dead. Or they would be protesting to the Palace gang and get the gas pipeline to Manila built so CNG can be used in these awful smoke belching buses, trucks, jeeps tricycles and other junk engines.

This is supposed to be clean air month according to the DOTC bossman recently. So what does the government do for clean air month? Plant some trees.

How about getting the junk buses that only run at night as they would be caught is they run during the day? The flying squads should be out at the 6 p.m. rush hour on Commonwealth as there are hundreds of junk buses out then. The air is so black you will think there are tires on fire near the road.

Yes Ramon this place is maybe beyond help as the brain dead is unable to see what clean air is like in London or even in Singapore.

Dry is dry

Gilbert Jose emailed this one.

It’s so dry in California that the Baptists are starting to baptize by sprinkling; the Methodists are using wet-wipes, the Presbyterians are giving out rain-checks, and the Catholics are praying for the wine to turn back into water.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]