Amnesty option

Our friends in the business community have expressed elation over the way the plight of convicted former President Joseph Estrada is being discussed publicly.

Earlier, we said the business sector provided the best indicator on how the nation received the guilty verdict on Estrada which was handed down by the Sandiganbayan two weeks ago. We noted that the peso gained more strength and the capital market demonstrated an upbeat mood in the aftermath of the verdict.

The response, we noted, was a clear sign of improving political maturity – that we are now better able to manage our collective response to major political developments, ensuring that such response does not in anyway adversely affect the overall economic climate in the country.

It is also worth mentioning that there have been no major attempts to pillory the Sandiganbayan as a result of its guilty verdict. Even among some staunch Estrada sympathizers, the call has been that of respect for the decision of the special court.

True, some groups still mouth propaganda espousing a contrarian position. But on the whole, the mood has been that of respect for the Sandiganbayan verdict. There has been no serious attempt to demolish the special court’s integrity and credibility.

This healthy respect appears to be an important indication that we have learned to understand the value of our country’s legal processes. We also appear to have accepted the fact that our shared respect for the legal processes assures us of socio-political stability which, in turn, lays the foundation for sustained economic improvement.

Capital market expert and economic analyst Astro del Castillo, who has been a major media resource person on the impact of political developments on business, says that the perceived political maturity and respect for the legal processes will definitely do the business community much good.

This will augur well for the local business sector’s effort to battle the effects of rising oil prices in the world market and of the fall out of adverse developments in the American business front, Del Castillo has underscored.

Reason: our political behavior has now become more predictably less influential on our business behavior. And predictability is a key factor in investments and business expansion decisions.

Today, it appears the discussion on Estrada issues are confined to the debate on Pardon versus Amnesty.

This is good, as far as the business sector is concerned.

The debate is purely legal even if much of the inputs that will go to it are political.

But a debate on pardon versus amnesty indicates that the Estrada issues will go through a predictable path. And predictability is what the business sector wants.

Predictability means having a defined range of options. As far as the former chief executive is concerned, his options are definitely within a specific range: one, pursue the remaining avenues for appeal and wait for a final judgment; two, accept a pardon or amnesty after the final judgment; and three, accept whatever is offered in the very near future whether pardon or amnesty.

Whichever option is taken appears to be supportive of continuing stability in the political and business fronts.

As far as recent developments are concerned, the business sector view is that the talks in Palace corridors about a pardon or amnesty for the former president timed with the Yuletide season has entered the realm of the probable. And of the highly acceptable.

The Administration side of the debate appears to be focused on addressing the legal fine points and the social repercussion of the grant of either a pardon or an amnesty. There are views that the grant must wait for a final judgment. But there are also views to the contrary, particularly among the fans of Gerald Ford’s handling of the Richard Nixon situation.

There are also views that a pardon or amnesty might convey a preferential option for the rich and privileged such as the former president.

The latter issue is said to be a major factor in favor of an amnesty. A presidential pardon is specific to an individual. An amnesty benefits a group or class of offenders. The latter option expands the beneficiaries of a pardon for Estrada. That should dampen any perception that there is selective justice in the country.

The Estrada side of the debate emphasizes “conditions” for accepting a pardon or an amnesty. The view is that the “conditions” are last-ditch efforts at leveraging optimum benefits, mostly political. But many believe the Estrada group will not dig in. There appears to be a consensus that getting the former chief executive out of incarceration would be to the benefit of all.

There are local advocates of the South Korean brand of treatment for convicted former presidents. This circle wants to parade them in the orange garb of Muntinlupa residents, handcuffed and all.

This view must be respected nonetheless. It is part and parcel of the debate.

But the view is that nobody would profit from a Bilibid scenario, except the fans of reality TV shows who want to see Estrada languishing behind bars.

As far as the business sector is concerned, the stuff  belongs to foreign cable TV shows. And must be limited to their entertainment value.

In the meantime, the nation should move on. And since the business sector appears ready to lead the forward move, it would prefer that the road ahead be paved with predictability and stability.

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