Bullish on 2007

A bullish 2007 seems unmistakable, and 2006 has set the stage for it. The business climate, at least in the Philippines and most of Asia, seems getting rosier. Never mind if we are still among the laggards in the region – any step forward, no matter how small, is a step in the right direction. The dismal picture of the Asian crisis of 1997 is now hopefully a ghost of the past, not to revisit us in the near future as some pessimists or harbingers of bleak news are wont to believe.

Some issues bear watching.

The Philippine peso has been steadily gaining against the US dollar, slowly but steadily. By the end of August last year, it was still close to P51, at P50.945, and by September, it was at P50.73. The micro mini step forward may seem insignificant, but the steady pace was heartening to currency watchers. By November, the peso was at P49.85, shattering the psychological barrier of P50. The keen watchers noted that the Thai baht was steady against our currency at P1.36 all this time.

The peso has improved even more, breaking through to P48.91, while the baht has remained steady against the peso at P1.35. It is interesting to note that the baht has remained largely unscathed, despite the negative impact of its bloodless coup several months ago and, more recently, the spate of bombings in its well-known tourist resorts. This speaks well of the progress Thailand has made, and its credibility standing in the international community.

Most other currencies, pitted against the peso, have remained steady, steadier than the US dollar. The Japanese yen has not moved much, and in fact has appreciated against the peso very, very slightly, at P0.43 in August last year as compared to P0.41 in the most recent posting this month. The UK pound, at P96.79 last August, is now at P96.06, while the Singapore dollar, then at P32.29, is now at P31.97. The ringgit is steady at P13.90, not moving much from its position in August last year which was at P13.80.

I remember my numerous trips to Hong Kong in the 80s and 90s, and the Hong Kong dollar then was always steady at P7 to a HK dollar. The highest it ever went was in the mid-90s when it stood at P7.70, and stayed there for several years. It has finally moved to P6.30 as of last count.

From August of last year to early this month, the peso’s improvement can no longer be called lackadaisical, but by mid year last year, we still lagged behind other Asian currencies as far as the gains are concerned. For the first six months last year, the peso appreciated by 4.6 percent. If we compare this to our neighbors in the region, we can still thank our lucky stars, but without throwing a glance at what they have achieved compared to us. The Thai baht appreciated by an enviable 9.3 percent, making it the best performer in the region for this period. Indonesia did very well during this period as well, with the Rupiah appreciating by as much as 8.3 percent. This is also remarkable, considering that tourist influx has been affected by the insurgency and has rendered some areas in the country, particularly the resort areas, as unstable.

The Singapore dollar appreciated by 5.8 percent, while the Korean Won appreciated by 5.1 percent.

By year end, the peso has risen by more than eight percent, rising to its highest level in six years.

The local stock market is bullish again, after lying dormant for some time. After the second quarter last year, we were well on our way as we saw improvements in the performances of most stocks. With the government’s report that the country’s economy expanded 5.5 percent by the third quarter, the stocks responded well. By this time the Philippine Stock Index rose 17.21 points, to 2,329.44. At around this time last year, PLDT stocks, which were among the most actively traded, rose to P1,925, a .085 increase. By now, PLDT stocks are being traded at P2,580.

Compare these figures to the most recent postings. The composite index rose 43.85 points, to 3,020.70. As reported in the papers, this is the highest it has risen in 10 years. By this same period in 1997, just before the Asian financial crisis, the bourses closed at 3,060.59.

Even in Hong Kong, new records were being set. Hang Seng index closed at 1.4 percent at 20,001.91 by year end. Their all-time high was 20,038.23. Gold futures were also up, though trading volume was rather thin.

We see traders on the floor jumping, as the peso’s strength and positive corporate developments have driven the bourses to new highs. Alas, our exporters are bearing the brunt of the peso’s appreciation as they face lost opportunities because of this development. The stronger peso has made Philippine products abroad a little more expensive, and this is hurting our exporters. And, as reports have it, the worst hit are the indigenous exporters. The Philippine Confederation of Exporters is a very active and dynamic group. I hope they can steer the group to more positive results this year.

Enjoy poker without gambling

Good news for poker lovers. There is a move to revive the weekly poker tournaments on a friendly level at the Sports Den of the Valle Verde Country Club.

These weekly clash of skill, stealth and patience will still be kept at the no-cash-wager- level. While there is a growing demand for the new poker variant, Texas Hold’em, which has taken the US and other countries by storm, and lately even the Philippines as well, the traditional Classic Filipino Poker is still very much alive. There is still a strong following for this, and these hard-core poker enthusiasts refuse to cross over to the other side.

The Poker Club of the Philippines is contemplating on bringing these two groups together under one roof, but on different tables of course, for these weekly friendly tournaments. Similarly the weekly winners for both the Hold ‘em and Classic Poker tournaments shall form the finalists group for the Quarterly Tournament of Champions where the champions will receive trophies, gift certificates from sponsors and the right to play in the Champions’ Table for the annual Grand Finals. The names of the champions of both tournaments shall be etched on a special showcase inside the Sports Den for perpetual bragging rights.

We have not firmed up the other details or the dates. I’ll certainly keep you posted. However, if you feel that the idea turns you on and would like to meet and clash with other Classic Filipino Poker buffs or you would want to weekly hone your Texas Hold ‘em skills, while preparing for the annual Philippine Poker Tour Million Peso Tournament, why don’t you let us know this early by writing to our e-mail address that’s found below. Maybe if the clamor is that much we may just hasten the start of these weekly poker tournaments.

Mabuhay!!! Be proud to be a Filipino.

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