Hopeful optimists no more!

What is happening to our nation? We used to be a nation of hopeful optimists even in the worse of times. But I guess, it hadn’t been as bad as it had been the past five years or so. It shouldn’t be surprising that we have become instead, a nation of hopeless pessimists… living to survive by the day.

The fourth quarter 2005 Social Weather Survey reveals net personal optimism still at a low plus 6. Thus, the changes reported by Filipinos in their personal Quality of Life over the past 12 months, and prospectively over the next 12 months, continue to be unfavorable. The SWS December 2005 survey also found no improvement in the people’s outlook for the country’s economy, contrary to what a number of economists have been saying lately.

The SWS survey found 30 percent optimistic that their quality of life would be better after 12 months, and 23 percent expecting that it would be worse, for a Net Personal Optimism score of plus 6, correctly rounded. This outlook is a bare improvement from August 2005, when 26 percent were optimistic and 27 percent were pessimistic, putting Net Personal Optimism at net zero, correctly rounded.

Gross Personal Optimism has been at low levels of 30 percent or less since 2004, coinciding with Ate Glue’s watch. According to the SWS, its tracking of optimism on the personal quality of life, optimists have exceeded pessimists except during the 1984 hyperinflation, the 1999 oil price crisis, Juetenggate in 2001, and the oil price hikes in 2005.

Comparing their present quality of life to 12 months ago, 19 percent said it had gotten better and 44 percent said it had worsened, for a Net Gainers score of minus 25. This is statistically the same as in August 2005, when 21 percent were Gainers and 47 percent were Losers, for a Net Personal Gainers score of minus 26.

The proportion of Losers has been at 40 percent or more for over five years, or since the start of Ate Glue’s reign. But then again, losers have generally predominated over gainers since the time series began in 1983. It was only during the early years of the Aquino administration when the two groups were roughly equal, showing a happier state of affairs then. Very wide gaps between Losers and Gainers happened at the height of the Gulf War and in the last years of the Marcos and Estrada administrations.

The survey items on Personal Gainers/Losers, Personal Optimists/ Pessimists, and Optimism about the Economy are indicators of trend, meaning change over time, and are not indicators of status, meaning position at a moment of time. The Social Weather Surveys referred to in this story all used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of plus/minus three percent for national percentages and plus/minus six percent for area percentages).

I guess the principal problem of Ate Glue now is how to make people feel good about themselves and be more optimistic about the future. And as I keep saying here, this is a task that can only be accomplished not by propaganda but by delivery of honest to good results in vital programs that people can see and feel for themselves to be true.

Cebu hotel

First the good news... I’ve been told that the carcass of a hotel building started by the SM Group beside the SM Mall in Cebu may finally be completed. SM Investments, the listed company that owns the unfinished hotel building has finally decided that because of the current acute hotel room shortage in Cebu, it makes good business sense to now proceed with the project’s completion. The project was abandoned close to 10 years ago.

I was told by a Filipino hotel professional that the SM hotel building is probably one of the best designed in the country. The problem with SM, I understand, is that Henry Sy’s people are insisting that cost of completing the hotel, mostly its interiors, should be shouldered by a prospective partner. Completion costs are estimated at about $10 million.

That could further delay the project. As it was explained to me, most international hotel chains no longer want to invest on real estate and are in fact trying to sell their own properties. The only exception to this trend is the Shangri-la Group because it has a property arm. Besides, any hotel chain with that kind of money would rather invest that in more prospective tourist destinations than the Philippines.

Still, my information from within the SM Investment group is that they are optimistic they will be able to get a partner and start final construction before the end of the year. If that happens, Cebu will have 400 new five star hotel rooms in another year or so.

Shortage of hotel rooms in Cebu has been crimping the growth of the tourism industry there. Everyone I talked to who is involved in the tourism industry tells me they can sell a lot more in-bound tourists than they are selling now if Cebu had more world-class five-star hotel rooms.

And speaking of five-star hotel rooms, I was talking with more hotel professionals and I get the impression that even Metro Manila has a serious problem in this regard. Outside of two to at most three hotels, Metro Manila’s hotels are in serious need of physical rehabilitation if they are to justify their claims to five star quality. One Pinoy international expert in the field described most of the so-called five-star rooms in Metro Manila as "dumps".

This is why, I am told, current government incentives for hotel investments outside of Metro Manila should cover the National Capital Region as well. My guess is, outside of the two Shangri-la hotels and the newly constructed Hyatt Marina, the other hotels constructed to meet the IMF-WB Conference deadline in the mid 70s, are truly starting to show their age.

Well... looks like the Tourism Secretary has more homework to do than I first thought. The problem is, I don’t think he is thinking long-term because he does not intend to stay there for long... politics after all, is really more of his game.

And on the matter of public infrastructure like airport terminals, don’t even start to ask what is happening to all that travel tax money they are collecting from us every time we travel. The tourism secretary would most likely not know since another politician is on top of that.

If I am allowed to make a guess, our travel tax money is most likely being used as a kind of pork barrel to reward other politicians as needed. I heard the Philippine Tourism Authority, the agency entrusted by law with our travel tax money, even gave the Mount Data Lodge it owns and manages to the local government unit. If PTA couldn’t manage that tourism infrastructure, it is expecting too much to think the LGU can.

Woodpeckers

Dr. Ernie E must be having a dry day… he recycled another joke. Luckily, it is a classic.

A Hawaiian woodpecker and a Canadian woodpecker were arguing about which place had the toughest trees. The Hawaiian woodpecker said that they had a tree that no woodpecker could peck. The Canadian woodpecker challenged him and promptly pecked a hole in the tree with no problem.

The Hawaiian woodpecker was in awe.

The Canadian woodpecker then challenged the Hawaiian woodpecker to peck a Canadian tree that was absolutely unpeckable. The Hawaiian woodpecker expressed confidence that he could do it and accepted the challenge.

After flying to Canada, the Hawaiian woodpecker successfully pecked the tree with no problem.

The two woodpeckers were now confused. How is it that the Canadian woodpecker was able to peck the Hawaiian tree and the Hawaiian woodpecker was able to peck the Canadian tree when neither one was able to peck the tree in their own country?

After much woodpeckering, they both came to the same conclusion:

Your pecker is always harder when you’re away from home.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]