Economic officials to revise GDP figures for previous years

Economic officials are likely to revise the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures for previous years following the government’s decision to revise merchandise import figures from 2002 to 2004.

A National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) data submitted to the Joint Congressional Committee on Economic Affairs showed that merchandise import figures were lowered by 11 percent, nine percent and 11.4 percent for 2002, 2003 and 2004, respectively.

NEDA assistant director general Estrella Domingo said that as a result of the revision, the 2004 GDP growth of six percent may be lowered by 0.33 percent to take into consideration the 11.4 percent adjustment in import data for 2004.

For 2003, the impact of the revision in import data would be a reduction of 0.26 percent on that year’s GDP growth figure of 4.5 percent.

For 2002, on the other hand, the GDP figure would be lowered by 0.32 percent to reflect the 11 percent drop in import figures.

Based on the NEDA report, the industry, which will be directly affected by the adjustments in imports data, using the input-output accounts model, is the manufacture of parts and supplies for radio, TV, and communication.

NEDA said that in using the input-output model, estimates are able to take into account both direct and indirect effects of the import adjustments.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) earlier said it has incorporated the adjustments in imports data with the balance of payments (BOP).

Consequently, trade balance and current account balance would turn out to be more favorable than the initial estimates of $278 million and $766 million for 2003 and 2004, respectively.

With the revisions on trade balance and current account balance, both the trade balance and the current account balance would be better by the same amount for 2003 and 2004.

Hence, the trade deficit for 2003 and 2004 improved from $4.518 billion and $5.124 billion to $4.240 billion and $4.358 billion, respectively.

The BSP said the current account surplus would now be higher from $1.396 billion and $2.080 billion to $1.674 billion and $2.846 billion for 2003 and 2004, respectively.

NEDA Secretary Augusto Santos said the 2005 growth prospect is seen at 5.3 percent but will not be lower than 4.5 percent.

The growth drivers for 2005, Santos said, would be the agricultural sector which is expected to grow by three percent; industry which is seen to expand by 4.5 percent; and services with a 6.6 percent growth forecast.