Agri sector sees 3%-4% growth

The agriculture sector’s growth could slow down this year to three to four percent, weakened by the carryover effects of the destructive typhoons last December and a prolonged drought in the first semester.

"That is our fighting target," said Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap, adding that unfavorable weather would affect major subsectors such as crops and fisheries.

Corn production in the first quarter alone is already experiencing a shortfall of 280,000 metric tons (MT), causing prices to shoot up and forcing the Department of Agriculture to downscale its full-year production targets to 5.7 - 5.8 million MT from the earlier target of 5.9 million MT.

Yap said standing crops in major corn producing areas in Northern Luzon were hit by a series of strong typhoons last December. Replanting was delayed for almost a month as farmers waited for floodwaters to subside. The same crop was later affected by the dry spell due to El Niño, causing lower yields.

Rice production for the dry season from November to April, while only down by 50,000 MT in the first quarter could have a major impact on the overall performance of the agriculture sector, especially if the drought continues or becomes severe.

Francisco Malabanan, director of the Ginintuang Masaganang Ani or GMA rice program, said the 50,000 MT shortfall could easily be offset with the expansion of hectarage devoted to planting hybrid rice.

"For the dry cropping season for rice, we have increased the hectarage for hybrid rice to 160,000 hectares from only 90,000 hectares last year during the wet season crop (May to October), and by the end of the year, we expect this to further increase to 200,000 hectares," said Malabanan.

The government is pinning its hopes of substantially higher yields from the planting of hybrid rice which could yield an average of six MT per hectare and as high as 12 MT per hectare.

Rice and corn, the country’s major staples, account for 15 percent and six percent, respectively, of total agricultural output.

Yap said the DA will also be looking closely at the fisheries sector which last year contributed about 17 percent to the total agricultural output.

Growth in the fisheries sector will continue to come from aquaculture and mariculture, said Malcom Sarmiento, director of the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources.

"We will be monitoring how the El Nino will affect the performance of the fisheries sector. As marine fishing tapers off in the first semester, this should be offset by a bigger production from aquaculture and mariculture," said Sarmiento.

The University of Asia and the Pacific (UAP) has projected a growth rate of 2.5 to 3.5 percent for the agriculture sector this year.

"We are taking on a more cautious approach in projecting agricultural growth this year because there are several factors that will weigh heavily on the sector’s performance. It would be difficult to match last year’s estimated growth rate or even this year’s projections by the DA," said Dr. Rolando T. Dy, executive director of the Center for Food and Agribusiness School of Management of UAP.

Dy said this year, the agriculture sector will continue to deal with higher production costs, particularly, imported petroleum-based fertilizers as crude oil prices in the world market are expected to further go up in the coming months. The cost of other production inputs such as feeds are also seen to increase. The lower consumer purchasing power will also have an impact on the sector’s performance.He noted that the oil price hikes will impact on the prices of nitrogen fertilizers such as urea, ammonium sulfate. Also high oil prices translate to higher logistics costs, which in turn, affect the prices of farm inputs and outputs.