NEDA bullish about 6.2% growth in 2004

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew by 6.2 percent in 2004, given the strong growth of the manufacturing sector.

NEDA said the year-end forecast was based on the release of the National Statistics Office’s Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI) for November 2004.

The MISSI is based on the responses of 470 sample establishments operating in the country, including firms within the economic zones.

The MISSI aims to provide planners and policy-makers with the monthly performance of the manufacturing sector prior to the release of the quarterly national income accounts data.

As of end-September last year, GDP grew by 6.5 percent and gross national product (GNP) by 6.2 percent.

The government has already revised upward the 6.1 percent growth assessment for last year, taking into account the higher public capital spending of the National Government in the fourth quarter due to better than programmed collections in revenues by about P18.1 billion.

The revised outlook also factors in the projection of the Department of Agriculture that agriculture grew by 5.1 percent in 2004, after factoring in the impact of typhoons Unding, Violeta and Winnie.

The actual full-year 2004 figures will be released by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) on Monday, Jan. 31.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary and NEDA director general Romulo Neri said that the manufacturing sector grew in November as the value and volume of production continue to make noteworthy increases. Value of sales of firms likewise posted double-digit expansion.

The volume of production index continues its turnaround in the last three months to November and registered an increase of 8.7 percent compared to its negative growth in the same period the prior year.

"Production and sales continue to post substantial increases as several sectors posted double-digit growths," Neri said, noting that for October-November, the growth in manufacturing based on the MISSI averaged 17.12 percent.

He also noted that the double-digit increases in the volume of production of the following subsectors buoyed total growth in manufacturing: electrical machinery (10.4 percent), beverage (24.9 percent), furniture and fixtures (97.2 percent), transport equipment (28.4 percent), paper and paper products (25.9 percent), publishing and printing (39 percent), wood and wood products (46.9 percent), and rubber products (59.2 percent).

Value of production index also registered double-digit growths in the last three months to November. Eighteen out of 20 subsectors registered hefty double-digit increases except food manufacturing, which nonetheless rose at a strong nine percent for the month of November.

The chief economic planner also noted that manufacturing performed better with average capital utilization of 79.9 percent compared to 78.3 in the same period in 2003.