Are we facing a rice shortage?

Day 3 of the new Ate Glo presidency and she may have to add a looming rice crisis in her list of immediate worries. I was just talking with some of the guys in charge of buying the rice distributed to employees of a major corporate group and I was told that a sack of rice that previously cost P980 has gone up to over a thousand pesos. Some suppliers are quoting as high as P1,500.

That caught me by surprise. All along I thought the agricultural sector had a bumper season and the introduction of new and more productive rice strains had been successful beyond expectations. So I texted Agriculture Secretary Cito Lorenzo who replied "we’re in between seasons, lean months and international price is up as China again buying in world market."

But Cito was careful to reassure that "we have enough." Some comfort! The last time Cito assured me we had enough, was in relation to chicken last December. I thought the NFA stockpiled enough rice so that even during the lean months, the price of rice to consumers remains more or less constant.

Anyway, Cito explained "domestic traders also didn’t import as international prices higher than domestic market. So they’re buying from domestic market." Cito’s assurances aside, it seems that urban consumers have to live with higher rice prices on top of a possible doubling in pan de sal prices, higher transport fares and utility rates.

Paying more for rice shouldn’t be that bad if, at least, farmers who constitute a big bulk of our population, would be making some money, at last. Unfortunately, the reality is, the farmers have long ago sold their rice stocks to traders. So it would be the fairly rich rice traders who will be getting richer from the imbalance in supply and market requirements. Worse, those traders deal in cash, well beyond the reach of the Bureau of Internal Revenue. Underground economy is at work here to benefit the rich.

Cito asked his Undersecretary and NFA head, Art Yap to get in touch with me and explain the situation. Mr. Yap texted me last Friday evening, promising to call me the following day. He never did. I guess he didn’t know how to explain the situation without getting his foot in his mouth. Or he didn’t think it was important enough to reassure me, and my readers, there is nothing to worry about. Maybe, we do have something to worry about.

Actually, beyond Mr. Yap and this government’s ability (or lack of it) to manage our rice supply situation, there is plenty to worry about. Cito just mentioned China’s impact on world market prices. Apparently, that Chinese super variety that had been grown here successfully and renamed Gloria rice, was not enough to supply China’s billion plus people.

Then, there’s the negative effect of global warming on rice production. I just came across an item in the BBC news website about how "global warming could have a severe effect on rice production." The BBC report quoted scientists working in the Philippines who looked into 12 years of rice yields and 25 years of temperature data, to work out how they are linked.

They found out that "yields dropped by 10 percent for each degree of warming, an alarming trend." Experts say world rice production must increase by about one percent every year, to meet the demand of a growing world population.

The problem was traced to hotter night temperatures. Researchers found a strong link between increasing night temperatures – which rose by an impressive 1.1C over 25 years – and decreasing rice yields. The scientists believe "this is because, during hot nights, rice puts more energy into respiring and less into growing. Increases in temperature, with all else being equal, can add to maintenance and respiration costs."

Scientists are afraid global warming will make it increasingly difficult to feed the Earth’s growing population. "Computer models of climate change suggest that night-time temperatures will continue to rise faster than in the day – by several degrees C in the coming decades. This is bad news for rice because it often grows in the tropics – very near the top end of its temperature range. So a slight increase in temperature can bare a heavy cost."

If the situation worsens, rice production may move to the cooler regions up north. But what happens to our farmers who even now, are suffering from low productivity? This is a long-term problem that will have to be addressed.

In the meantime, Ate Glo, Cito Lorenzo and Art Yap may deny there is an imminent rice shortage. And they would be right. But they can’t deny that the price has dramatically gone up, at the worse possible time for an administration trying its best to be accepted by a skeptical public.

Reaction From Los Angeles

I got a reaction all the way from Los Angeles from pre-martial law Radyo Patrol reporter Perry Alcudia to our column last Wednesday. It was a pleasure to hear from Perry after so many years. Perry and I went to the same schools, UP Prep and Paco Catholic. And we ended up working for the same broadcast firm, ABS-CBN before martial law. Perry is still every inch a Pinoy despite his Los Angeles address. This is what he had to say.

We can all understand the situation our country is in. I read your column today three times. It (your column) is actually demanding GREATNESS from our newly elected President thereby implying that she has that personal quality.

There are probably a million things to do to SAVE our country from total chaos and everyone’s telling Ate Glo what they are. At the same time! Is she an effective leader? I remember she had goals and deadlines posted in the Internet before and then it disappeared. Nagkalimutan na! That was a good idea to keep the administration in focus. Hindi lamang lumabo, nawala na.

Although she has experience being President, she was not skilled enough to tackle the humungous problem our country is in. Maybe no one is. Can she do it this time? What is the LEAST that we should expect her to achieve? By when? Do we have to really give her six years if she is already messing up by the third year and not making any progress? Can we accept one little miracle at a time?.

Should we not start prepare other leaders from a carefully selected pool? Ang problema sa ating sistema ng democrasya ay naghihintay lamang ang mga tao na pumili sa kung sino ang sumikat (from the word "sikat" as in shiny and popular) without regard to real qualifications and skills. This way of electing leaders and managers worked when everyone knew how to pick leaders with reputation as successful managers.

Our present situation is entirely different. This is the point we are missing. The qualification to become elective leaders in government MUST BE REVISED ENTIRELY. One such qualification should be a proven record of successful administration of a government agency or a city like the performance of Mayor Belmonte of QC and that MMDA chief. Great job.

When I read your column, I remember our history when the likes of Marcelo Del Pilar, Rizal, Mabini etc. wrote with conviction and fervor to defend our country. But those guys never heard of heart attack, hypertension, diabetes, or stroke. The intensity of your content is now bursting with desperation that I can virtually see veins bursting from your neck and head. I am now more worried about you than our country. Why? Because it will be a waste to have a brilliant mind damaged by too much stress and tension.

Remember the instruction in the planes by the "cabin attendants" In case of depressurization and you are with children, PUT YOUR MASK ON FIRST before the children. It is a sensible instruction. Take care of yourself first and see you in Los Angeles, my friend.

Proof

Another doctor, not Dr. Ernie E., sent this one.

A man and a woman were having drinks when they got into an argument about who enjoyed sex more. The man said, "Men obviously enjoy sex more than women. Why do you think we’re so obsessed with getting some?"

"That doesn’t prove anything," the woman countered. "Think about this: when your ear itches and you put your finger in it and wiggle it around, then pull it out, which feels better: your ear or your finger?"

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]