Coco production seen to drop 25% in three years

The country’s coconut production is projected to go down by as much as 25 percent over the next three years unless government steps in and initiates a massive fertilization program for coconut plantations.

The Philippine Coconut Authority’s (PCA) research, development and extension branch (RDEB) said declining productivity of coconut farms and other factors such as the El Niño weather phenomenon will result in reduced coconut yields if no significant intervention is done by the government.

The RDEB projection shows that for 2004, the estimated coconut production is 2.386 million MT in copra terms which is lower compared to the production of 2.425 MT in 2003.

In 2005, total output is projected to drop by five percent to 2.2331 million MT due to the forecast recurrence of El Niño from October this year to April 2005. By 2006, production is projected to suffer a much bigger cut of 25 percent to 1.7137 million MT, again due to El Niño.

RDEB said the El Niño phenomenon which hit the country from October 1997 to October 1998 resulted in a reduced production of 1.374 million metric tons (MT) during the 1999 cropping year.

There was a marked recovery in 2000 and 2001 with production reaching 2.572 million MT and 2.868 million MT, respectively, as the PCA carried out the Small Coconut Farms Development Project (SCFDP)which among others, included a massive fertilization and rehabilitation of major coconut-producing regions in the country.

Under the SCFDP, copra yields improved significantly to about 1.83- 2.01 MT per hectare, the result of fertilization and favorable rainfall during the period.

Since then, there has been no sustained fertilization and rehabilitation program. Thus, productivity of these fertilized farms, about 350,000 hectares nationwide, have been declining at the rate of eight to nine percent annually.

RDEB said that by 2007, the level of yields is projected to reach the 1991 level of 0.94 MT copra per hectare, and further down to 0.70 MT by 2010 if no efficient crop nutrition program is carried out. RDEB said the El Niño will have the highest negative impact a year after its peak or tail-end of the severe drought that recurs every four to six years in the country.

RDEB added that without the fertilization of coconut farms, the 350,000 hectares of SCFDP farms will contribute just 1.13-1.4 MT copra per hectare, while the rest, or about 2.75 million hectares of coconut areas will produce an average of only 0.70 MT copra per hectare annually because of nutritional deficiencies.

This is further aggravated by the fact that 15 percent of coconut trees in the country are already in various stages of senility.

RDEB pointed out that the effect of new planting and replantings in 35,000 to 50,000 hectares is not yet expected to contribute significantly in the supply of harvestable coconuts even up to the year 2007.