Agriculture sector projected to grow 3.4% in 2004

Barring unfavorable weather changes and calamities, the Department of Agriculture (DA) is projecting the agriculture sector to post a growth of three percent to four percent for 2004.

Agriculture Assistant Secretary Segfredo Serrano Jr. said the sector’s growth forecast is consistent with the government’s medium-term development program.

"We don’t expect to have dramatic leaps in the sector’s growth because the Department’s programs are in line with the national government’s medium-term growth forecast and for this year, the growth range of three percent to four percent is fairly realistic and achievable," Serrano said.

In 2003, the agriculture sector recorded a 3.77-percent growth.

Agriculture analysts said that aside from hinging the sector’s growth to favorable weather, the bigger factor would be the required budgetary support to keep critical interventions possible.

However, Congress appropriated only P15.4 billion for the DA in 2004. This is 26 percent lower than the proposed budget of P20.9 billion. The amount year’s budget is also 35 percent lower than what the Agricultural Fisheries and Modernization Act (AFMA) provides for, and eight percent lower than the 2003 allocation.

Analysts said the 2004 DA budget is its lowest in real terms if one takes into account the inflation.

"It will be a difficult year for the agriculture sector. The budgetary concerns will definitely affect the Department’s capability to inject interventions when necessary, the resources are simply not enough," said a former DA top official.

The agriculture sector which comprises a fifth of the country’s total economic output, sailed through unfavorable weather last year, slowing growth to just 3.77 percent from the 4.12-percent growth in 2002.

The fourth quarter growth was also lower at 5.6 percent from 6.83 percent in the same period in 2002.

In 2003, the tail-end effect of the El Nino in the first semester and the onslaught of supertyphoons Harurot and Nina in the third quarter hit production.

Nothwithstanding the scant rainfalll the country expects in the first and second quarters, the the Bureau of Agriculture Statistics (BAS) is projecting the country’s two major staples, rice and corn, to post higher production in 2004.

Production of palay which last year totaled 13.5 million MT, is projected to reach 5.91 million MT in the first semester, about 10 percent higher than its year-ago level.

In the first quarter, the crop yield is projected at 3.36 milllion MT, again exceeding the 2003 level by more than 10 percent. –Rocel Felix