Oct exports up 6.2% to $3.22-B

Merchandise exports rose by 6.2 percent to $3.223 billion in October, possibly signalling the start of a rebound in the last quarter of the year, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reported yesterday.

Industry sources said the October performance reflected the anticipated pick-up in global demand, particularly the US which recorded a strong economic performance in the third quarter of the year.

The latest export growth was the fastest since an 8.6 percent rise in March, which came before the region’s economies felt the impact of the SARS virus and war in Iraq, providing further evidence an Asian recovery is under way.

The government statistics office said a 6.3 percent rise in key electronics exports helped push overall exports up to $3.223 billion in October from $3.033 billion in the same period last year.

The growth in electronic shipments, which make up two thirds of exports, was the highest this year.

During the 10-month period, exports were up just one percent at $29.489 billion from $29.191 billion in the same period last year.

The government expects a five percent growth in export revenues this year, which would represent a slower expansion than the 9.5 percent seen in 2002.

"It was more or less in line with market expectations," said MMS/S&P regional economist David Cohen.

"This is the highest growth rate since March but it is still lackluster compared to the gains made by other countries in the region."

For his part, DBS Bank regional economist Wong Chee Seng said "the next two months will likely see Philippine exports rise, with growth stronger than 6.2 percent."

However, Wong said he did not expect exports to hit the government’s target of five percent growth for the whole year. Local exporters are likely to continue benefiting from increasing global demand as well as a weak peso, he added.

Asian exporting economies have started to ride a recovery in the key US market.

The booming Chinese economy is also sucking in imports, although some Asian countries, including the Philippines, are struggling to deal with stiff competition from Chinese exports.

South Korean exports were up 22.5 percent from a year earlier in November, while Thai exports were up 15.6 percent in October. Malaysia scored export growth of 4.4 percent in the year through October.

"The plus is that the recovery in electronics we were seeing globally over the past three months appears to be filtering through in the Philippines as well," said G.K. Goh Securities economist Song Seng Wun.

"The global recovery in electronics and chip sales may see sustained exports growth in 2004 in the Philippines."

Better But Lagging

Analysts have said that the Philippine electronics export model, which consists largely of assembling imported parts and shipping them out again, looks outdated and vulnerable to Chinese competition. Electronics executives warned recently that their industry was in severe trouble, partly due to a lack of government support.

The country ran a trade deficit of $1.686 billion in the first nine months of the year, putting further pressure on an economy already laboring under a huge budget deficit and Asia’s weakest currency this year.

Politics is another major threat to growth as business people brace for a potentially volatile election campaign leading up to next May’s national polls.

"We may see some investments being postponed," said Song. "So the Philippines may still lag behind other countries like Malaysia and Taiwan."

The economy rebounded slightly in the third quarter after flirting with recession earlier this year, growing a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent from the second quarter, but much of the improvement was due to good weather that boosted farm output.

Beyond electronics, key Philippine exports are textiles, clothing, coconut oil, furniture and tropical fruit.

Japan was the largest export market, taking 18.3 percent of total shipments in October or $689.48 million worth.

The US was the second largest market for exports with 16.2 percent or $521.6 million in October, marking a 23 percent drop from a year ago. –With Reuters, AFP