August imports down 8.5%

Imports fell 8.5 percent to $3.105 billion in August from a year earlier, likely in reaction to a failed mutiny in July, but the drop signalled potential problems in demand for electronics assembled for export.

The figures are not seasonally adjusted.

The Philippines recorded a trade deficit of $138 million in August, lower than the deficit of $361 million in the same month of 2002, the National Statistics Office said yesterday.

Earlier this month, it said exports fell 2.2 percent to $2.966 billion in August from $3.032 billion a year earlier as electronic shipments to major markets such as the United States continued to dwindle.

Jose Vistan, an economic analyst at AB Capital, said the August imports number was lower than his forecast of $3.4 billion. But he noted that the peso had weakened significantly after the failed uprising by rogue troops on July 27.

"Demand for imports is a function of cost, so the peso depreciation made it more expensive," he said. "It was a knee-jerk reaction to the mutiny. Manufacturers slowed down in their orders."

Other analysts said the latest fall in exports, which followed a 7.2-percent drop in July, was further evidence that some Asian nations have the wrong mix of products to deal with surging demand and strong competition from booming China.

But they expected the Philippines to benefit from a recovery in major markets such as the United States going into 2004.

Sluggish demand in the Philippines’ top export markets has weighed on its trade performance and economic growth this year, raising concern about the impact of a widening trade deficit on the current account.

The trade deficit in the first eight months of the year reached $1.905 billion, far wider than the $513 million deficit in the same period of last year.

Vistan said an expected bounce-back by the information technology sector should translate into higher exports.

"If there’s growing demand for our exports, imports subsequently should pick up for the rest of the year," he said. "It helps that the peso is stabilising."

Exports are a key source of foreign exchange that is needed to pay for imported energy and intermediate goods such as components required to assemble electronics for export.

The Philippines barely averted its first recession since 1998 in the second quarter as the economy grew 0.1 percent from the first quarter.

Officials and analysts have warned that political risks in the run-up to next May’s elections – exacerbated by the July 27 mutiny – were threatening the economy. – Reuters