The economy is how you see it

WASHINGTON DC – Half empty or half full? The economy’s pretty much how you see it or want to see it. There is enough "empirical" evidence to support any perspective. The Dow had been steadily climbing and there are those who say it would be in the 10,000 range again sooner than we think. The employment statistics are still worrisome, but not as bad as it could have been.

As we wrote in this column last week, the employment picture in California isn’t pretty. But it seems that the rest of the country is improving somewhat. In fact, there are those who say that while today’s market may be flooded with workers, a severe drought could happen as early as next year.

One piece of evidence commonly cited by shortage forecasters is a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US government agency charged with tracking labor markets. According to an article in American Way, the inflight magazine of American Airlines, this government study shows there will be 10 million more jobs than employees by 2010.

"Another way to look at it is that the economy by then will support 167 million jobs, but the population will be able to fill only 157 million of them." The magazine pointed out that the last time there was such an imbalance was in 2000, when there were 4.7 million more jobs than people.

But there is a big BUT. We are not talking about just any old jobs. The openings will mostly be for jobs in the science and technology fields. America‘s problem is that "the number of students entering hard sciences is at a 16-year low, which bodes ill for basic research and high-tech fields."

This means, experts say, it will take more people to accomplish the same work done by the driven baby boomers and GenXers of today. So, it is expected that "when the hiring surge hits, the tech worker – lab technicians, healthcare workers, engineers of all sorts – will be in shortest supply."

I read somewhere that if they started being overly strict with foreigners working in tech-related industries or even in basic research with universities, America‘s scientific establishment would ground to a halt. On the other hand, this continuing shortage of trained technical and health workers would mean that countries like ours will continue to lose the very skills we need for development but could not compensate according to world-class pay standards.

The American Way article explains that "as technology has conquered the kingdom of work, many more companies need highly- skilled technical workers than they did at the end of the last downturn. In healthcare, for instance, the shortage is already so acute that many hospitals say staffing is their most urgent issue." That means our nursing schools back home cannot produce enough new nurses in the foreseeable future to satisfy this gaping demand.

But our MBAs hoping to recoup their investment at AIM need not fret. While middle management suffered in the current downturn, happy days could be here again. The article predicts that "managers are also expected to be scarce.

Even the current unemployment rate for managerial positions is much lower than the overall unemployment rate." There would be special demand for bilingual managers with international experience, those who can take on assignments outside the United States.

Well, that’s a hopeful thought. Maybe, the recession was really "just a temporary interruption in a long-term labor shortfall that started between 1994 and 1995, when the supply of jobs and workers began to tip out of balance." It had been pointed out that "today, although the unemployment rate is higher than it was before the economy faltered, it is lower than it was coming out of the last recession – 5.8 percent in March 2003 compared with seven percent in March 1993."

Maybe, just maybe, the economy‘s really stronger than it looks… that the economy is really strong underneath all the negative talk. Maybe, by the time that strength is obvious, America will be well into a worker shortage. And be a shortage that "could continue until 2010, when the accelerating retirements of baby boomers will" get ready make it worse, and perhaps even extend it for several decades."

Maybe, despite the gloom and doom prevalent today, it is all but certain that as the economy recovers, a hiring surge some forecasters are predicting, will shock many employers. How‘s that for looking at the economic glass today as half full on its way to overflowing. But don‘t buy that airline ticket yet. That nirvana of a job market has yet to materialize.

On line higher education

Back to today‘s reality, the relatively bad job market prevailing here today has resulted in a bumper crop of grad school applications. If they can’t get a job, might as well study in the hope of getting an even better paying job when the market turns.

The jobless student will most likely turn to the traditional brick and mortar colleges and universities where they attend classes and see professors in the flesh. However, grad school or even undergrad school, are now within the reach of those who are holding full time jobs – via on-line universities.

Last week, BusinessWeek had a feature on University of Phoenix, considered the pioneer here on on-line higher education to serve the burgeoning market for educating working adults. The school started its experiment in the late 1980s, long before the Internet became what it is today. It got off to a slow start, and lost money for a number of years.

But today, about 13 percent of the 500,000 or so US students earning a degree via the Net are enrolled at Phoenix Online. It is also starting to tap the international market about six months ago, bringing in about 500 students a month. In addition to English, it plans to offer courses in Spanish and possibly Mandarin. About 65 percent of its students go on to graduate.

Just before I left Manila, I had lunch with Dr. Rudy Ibañez, who is also pioneering on-line education for working professionals back home. Dr. Ibañez, a former top executive of United Laboratories, is now Dean of the Graduate School of American City University.

They have two MBA offerings for Manila-based students, a regular track MBA and one that specializes in Human Resource Management. Both require completion of 45 units of class credits. All classes are done online, where a professor meets with no more than four students at a time. Much better than the 11 member class of University of Phoenix.

I saw their faculty list and it is an impressive collection of known business professionals and academics. Dr. Ibañez said they are targeting the working professionals. Their HR-oriented MBA was recently endorsed by the Personnel Management Association of the Philippines. They have also signed up a number of government agencies, notably those in the electric cooperative sector, to undergo the on-line course.

Dr. Ibañez says they have international accreditation, meaning that their standards are world-class. Here‘s hoping that this pioneering effort is successful in producing high quality local executives that would help in our nation’s development.

It‘s a surprise

Here’s Dr. Ernie E.

A woman goes into a sporting goods store to buy a rifle. "It’s for my husband," she tells the clerk.

"Did he tell you what gauge to get?" asked the clerk.

"Are you kidding?" she says. "He doesn’t even know that I’m going to shoot him!"

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]