It’s that 70s show all over again

Astrologer Zenaida Seva is right. It's that 70s show all over again. Just look around you and see the mess everywhere. It's all a cycle, she explains. The economy is in tatters. War is in the air. Authoritarianism is on the rise, even in that bastion of civil liberties called the U.S. of A.

Then, as now, the Middle East figures prominently. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is as explosive as ever. And oil prices are back on the upswing. One wonders if we have learned our lessons from the past. If we have, we should be able to breeze through this crisis we face. Otherwise, we would be dancing around like headless chickens.

Other than our larger population now and, with it, more people in poverty, the country today should be better situated to meet a repeat of that 70s show. While we were almost totally dependent on imported oil for power generation and 100-percent dependent on oil for transport, today we are better off. We have achieved a very significant independence from imported oil for power and we have started to use non-oil powered mass transport systems.

The one thing we still have to suffer is the impact of a, depreciated peso and rising dollar costs of imported oil to be used largely for transportation. In an attempt to show that it is proactively addressing the crisis at hand, the Department of Energy announced that it would require the oil companies to boost inventory level to 60 days and it requested the oil companies to keep diesel prices at current levels. They were quiet, however, on who will carry the costs. That presumably means the oil companies are expected to bear them.

Fat chance. The deregulated environment is the one big difference from the 70s. The last time around, government was a large presence through the national oil company. Now, the PNOC is nothing but a bureaucratic shell meant to employ retired generals. Petron is being run by the Arabs. The new industry players are all dependent on the international spot market.

Easy for the energy department to require a 60-day inventory. But the carrying cost for doing that amounts to big money in real and opportunity costs. I guess normal inventory today is about 30 days, at most. The small players are probably living from day-to- day. Oil is an expensive product to keep in storage. It is expensive by itself and the special handling it requires costs money.

The last time around, I remember that we boosted our inventory to as high as 120 days. But we had the Oil Price Equalization Fund and the Oil Industry Special Fund to cover costs, including the capex required for additional storage tanks in Bataan and the cost of buying or chartering large tankers to serve as floating storage. Because consumption today is at least 100,000 barrels more per day than it was back in the 70s, a 60-day inventory today would be worth more than before. Where will the industry get the money for all that now? Or more importantly, do we have enough storage facilities available to store 60 days of crude and products?

A DOE undersecretary also had a press statement urging the industry to hold prices of diesel at current level. I wonder if he knows what he is asking for.

In the first place, the local market price of diesel cannot be at wide variance from the international price. Otherwise, we could end up with a shortage. Given the world-class expertise of the Pinoy in smuggling, large quantities of domestic diesel would be smuggled out of the country, to be sold in regional markets where it is priced higher. It happened before.

In fact, the gap in the prices between diesel and other products cannot be too dramatic. Otherwise, there is always a great temptation for dealers to adulterate gasoline with it. That has also happened before.

In other words, government should be educating the people to learn to accept world market prices of petroleum products instead of playing politics by artificially determining local prices. You can't really tinker with the market without suffering an even worse backlash.

I appreciate the public show of being awake on the part of the energy department. But I wonder if they really know what they are doing, or ought to be doing. At the very least, they should learn from history. Hopefully, our energy bureaucrats are not just playing politics to please Malacañang for just one news day, by promising something they cannot deliver.

Tylenol

Also back in the 70s, Johnson and Johnson, the makers of Tylenol earned a lot of goodwill when it voluntarily recalled the product from the market after a number of deaths attributed to product tampering in the United States. Today, according to The Economist, the makers of Tylenol will have to "finally admit that Tylenol can be a dangerous drug."

The Economist reports that after 25 years of study, a US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory panel decided last week to recommend that acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol, America’s most popular non-prescription drug, should carry an explicit warning about potential liver damage.

It turns out, acetaminophen can be toxic even in relatively small quantities. According to the story published by The Economist, the FDA has documented some "56,000 emergency-room visits every year because of acetaminophen overdoses, and 100 fatalities." Acetaminophen has been tagged by experts as the leading cause of acute liver failure. In a recent FDA study of patients with liver damage linked to acetaminophen, 20 percent had used less than the recommended daily dosage.

What Tylenol boxes now carry is a vague warning, noting that liver damage could result when the drug is mixed with alcohol. It does not explicitly warn consumers that liver damage is possible from taking Tylenol even without alcohol. A witness in a recent FDA hearing argued for more explicit warning about the risk of liver damage with Tylenol. Her son recently died from liver disease after taking an acetaminophen drug after injuring his wrist.

While it could be argued that millions and millions have used the product safely for years, there is always the danger that you could be among the few thousands who would develop serious or even fatal liver disease. At the very least, you should know about the risk.

I wonder if the local FDA is in on this development?

Tommy

Here's real good news from Cebu. Cebu City Mayor Tommy Osmeña was chosen as the most outstanding city mayor of the country by a consortium of government agencies and educational institutions. Tommy O topped 115 city mayors nationwide, including Manila, Quezon City, Makati, Davao etc. He was credited for his track record, management style and willingness to make tough decisions.

The award is doubly significant because Tommy barely managed to survive a serious hypertensive attack and stroke last March. Osmeña had to travel to Boston for medical treatment. His doctors say he could have died from what he suffered. Tommy not only survived it, he also beat off a move to unseat him via recall elections initiated by political enemies.

Tommy's secret for success as an effective public servant is no doubt his open mind. When confronted with a problem, he keeps saying ‘there is always a better way.’ And he is right. There always is.

Male and female

How do you tell the difference between male chromosomes and female chromosomes?

Pull down their genes!

(Boo Chanco's e-mail address is [email protected])