US economy to go nowhere into 2004?

This is real bad news for my dear Ate Glo. According to American economist Paul Krugman, "it’s all too possible that we may be looking at a sluggish economy into 2004, maybe beyond." If he is right and the Americans do end up wandering aimlessly in a kind of economic desert in the next two or three years, paano na tayo (what about us)?

Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley agrees there's a problem. "Suddenly, there's a sinking feeling again. And it's truly global in scope. From Asia, to Europe, to the United States, and to Latin America, the world economy seems to have lost any semblance of upward momentum. The case for a year-end acceleration appears to be in tatters. An engineless global economy is simply lacking in any real source of growth. It's starting to feel like a global double dip."

The economy should have been a potent issue for the US congressional elections next month. But President Bush had been able to save the day for the Republicans by shifting the attention of Americans from the economy to Iraq. As such, the poor Americans have not really noticed that "month by month the numbers keep coming in worse than expected."

In fact, Toshiba Corp., Japan’s largest chipmaker, said last Monday it expected US demand to fall off in the first half of 2003 and a possible Gulf War could dent consumer confidence. Krugman explains that "the overhang of excess capacity, especially in telecommunications, will be worked off only slowly." They may cut interest rates but Krugman doubts any real relief from that.

Krugman points out that "this isn’t your father’s recession – it’s your grandfather’s recession. That is, it isn’t your standard postwar recession, engineered by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation, and easily reversed when the Fed loosens the reins. It’s a classic overinvestment slump, of a kind that was normal before World War II. And such slumps have always been hard to fight simply by cutting interest rates."

As we all know in these islands, if the American economy catches a cold, our economy is out cold with pneumonia. As economist Roach puts it, "When America booms, the rest of the world goes along for the ride. When America sags, the rest of the world sinks like a stone. And that's precisely what's going on at this key juncture in the global business cycle."

In other words, if Ate Glo desperately wants to win in 2004, she must devise some creative means of nursing our economy through the hard times. And she can't depend on OFWs any more than we now are. There has to be some other way of unleashing the power of a population as large as ours to drive our economy.

First order of business is to convince our own entrepreneurs that there is money to be made by investing here. That won't begin to happen until there is more confidence in the political leadership's ability to govern. This covers not just peace and order, but actually making hard decisions on bugging issues that affect the economy.

Then, Ate Glo needs more officials like Bayani Fernando who will implement the law, no matter what. Indeed, Chairman BF epitomizes what an official of a "strong republic" should be like. It is a pity that most of the other Cabinet members doubt the concept can be implemented, beyond lip service.

Once it is clear that Ate Glo means business, confidence will be there to power an internally generated economic growth. If they had their rathers, the local entrepreneurs would rather invest at home. They end up in China and elsewhere only because a corrupt bureaucracy frustrates them. They have also been waiting for an administration that would govern, rather play politics.

Not hopeless

What did I say? The Ateneo team had it in them to win the championship. Like the nation, the team showed that when pushed to the wall, they not only fight back, but fight back effectively. Of course, there were at least two occasions during the game when I thought they would squander a wide lead because they didn't have the heart to win. But they won, showing the team isn't hopeless. Neither is the country.

I received a number of e-mails on the game and in reaction to a previous column. Here are portions of two representative samples.

The first one is from reader Benjamin Morales of Quezon City.

I read your article in The Philippine STAR and to my mind, your analogy was 100 percent accurate and prophetic. I am writing this mail right after Ateneo won the championship match and surely, Ateneo epitomized the Filipino in the entire series, talented, awesome and simply unmatchable, but complacent and have to be pushed back to the wall to bring out the best in them. Bringing out their best, surely they did in the rubber match, and La Salle, playing not necessarily a bad game, simply wilted to the Ateneo’s enormous talent.

The memorable event also brought back to my mind the launching of the John Gokongwei School of Management at the Ateneo de Manila on March 1, 2002. Mr. Gokongwei said in his speech that when asked about his stand on globalization, he said something like "it does not matter where I stand because as sure as the Ateneo basketball team will win next year’s UAAP basketball championship, global barriers will come crashing down ..."

I am not an Atenean but I have two Atenean kids. Mr. Gokongwei was my former boss at Universal Robina Corporation back in late seventies.

Congratulations to you for your article, to my two kids, the Ateneans and all its diehard fans.

This one's from a reader who just identified himself as Egbert.

You could tell however, that while the Atenistas were hoping Ateneo would win, there was a lot of skepticism about it. Like we overheard that some of them made bets, pero plus 3-1/2 ang Ateneo. Or, like in the 4th quarter, they were more concerned that the time run out when Ateneo was leading than that Ateneo really slaughter La Salle.

Well, recalling the column of Phil STAR Boo Chanco which compared the Philippine situation with the Ateneo team’s ability, there’s hope for the Philippines!

Best regards.

I guess the intense rivalry was also educational for the students of both universities. Tickets for the games were not that easy to get, forcing students to make sacrifices and be creative. They lined up for hours for the precious tickets. Some even camped out overnight. Waking up one of my daughters for her 8 a.m. class was normally an assignment for Job. For a chance to get those tickets, she was up on her own before six, except that others slept in Cubao overnight, so she got none.

My youngest daughter, a sophomore at Ateneo, went through my address book and e-mailed Manny Pangilinan for tickets after she was told that most of the tickets were sent to the alumni who supported Ateneo's team, Manny, among them. Having been audacious enough to go that far, I decided to text a friend who works with Manny to check how much of a long shot it was.

Well, she got her tickets and, I am sure, not simply because of me. Thanks, Manny. I thought the whole thing was insane but that's just because I come from a school that is constantly marooned in such tournaments. Anyway, congratulations to the Ateneo community for coming together to make this miracle possible. I am sure all the prayers helped. But in the end, the miracle was no miracle at all – determined and hard-working people made it happen.

No strings attached

And now, here's Dr. Ernie E.

The boss at the pub went up to the bartender and asked, "Have you been fooling around with the waitress?!"

"Oh no, sir, I sure haven’t," replied the bartender.

The boss replied, "Good. In that case then, YOU fire her!"

(Boo Chanco's e-mail address is [email protected])