June imports rise 9.4% to $2.85-B

The country’s imports rose for the fifth consecutive month in June, boosting expectations of sustained growth in exports and a reviving economy.

The National Statistics Office (NSO) reported yesterday that imports went up by 9.4 percent to $2.853 billion in June from $2.609 billion in the same period last year.

This brought the trade surplus for that month to $41 million, a sharp reversal from the $31 million deficit recorded in June 2001.

Mel Nicholas, monitoring chief of the Bureau of Import Services, said the rise in imports showed that the economy was bouncing back with industries buying more raw materials to meet increased orders.

"The economy is moving (forward) slowly. Most of the industries are getting their inventory moving so they have to replace their inventory," he said.

Michael Ricafort, analyst for Equitable-PCI Bank, said that "higher imports reflect an anticipation for sustained growth in exports in the coming months," despite the recent economic slowdown in the US, the country’s main trading partner.

Most of the country’s imports for the review period were raw materials rather than consumer goods, an indication of improving demand for the country’s export industries, many of which rely on imported outputs.

The country’s industrial output and export have traditionally risen along with imports. Many imports are vital to boost local manufacturing, particularly in the electronics industry.

But imports of components for the export-oriented electronic sector, which dominate purchases, were down 2.5 percent in June from the previous month.

Electronics manufacturers said investments in their industry has plummeted this year and that capacity has stopped growing. Doubts over whether demand will rebound, especially because of worries of a double dip recession in the US have also affected production of electronic products.

Analysts, however, said that monthly data is volatile and that there were worries on that score.

"We are just a little bit cautious given the US economy is beginning to show signs of weakness. So far that has not affected yet on the imports number," said Jose Vistan, an analyst at AB Capital Securities.

Others said the numbers were positive but may be masking underlying problems. "If we look at the numbers alone, the data are very positive," said BPI Securities economist Cecilia Tanchoco. "It seems the economy is on the way to recovery. But then we have a threat on the external side, the US economy’s weakness, and that threatens the strength."

The government statistics office said that payments for raw materials and intermediate goods amounted to $1.143 billion, accounting for more than 40 percent of total imports.

Capital goods comprising 38.7 percent of total import bill amounted to $1.105 billion. The group was led by telecommunication equipment and electrical machinery valued at $591.26 million.

Purchases of mineral fuel and lubricant were $279.17 million, while payments for consumer goods stood at $227.70 million.

Japan was the single biggest source of imports, accounting for 20.13 percnt of all imports in June with the US second with 18.57 percent.