Market likely to bounce back this week — analysts

Local stocks are likely to break out of a downtrend this week as positive signals from the US markets and selective picking of growth-flavored blue chip issues could induce trading activity at the bourse, analysts said.

However, they cautioned that such outlook could well be dampened by the continued lack of leads, especially as uncertainties in the country’s economic growth remain a concern among investors.

"Market trading is likely to be led by specific news on companies," Roberto Cano of BPI Securities said. "Most investors will focus on individual company performances and are awaiting the release of first quarter results to search for positive indications of future growth."

But he added that with the economy still looking sluggish, companies in debt (particularly those with foreign denominated loans) may still be constrained most especially as the peso is trading within the 50:$1 level.

The 30-company composite index slid to 1,445.26 points last Wednesday, the last trading day in a shortened work week as market players went on vacation and seemingly fasted ahead of the Holy Week break.

In addition, the flow of liquidity into the equities market was tempered by the need for income tax payments as the Internal Revenue’s deadline (today) nears.

Jose Vistan of Wise Securities, in a report on the investment website PhilStocks.net, said the market will be on the lookout for market-moving news and in the absence of such, may look at foreign markets for direction.

Fueled by a rebound in technology stocks, the US markets rampaged on Tuesday with the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Index surging six percent to breach the 10,000 mark for the first time in nearly a month.

Vistan projected that in the week ahead, the Phisix could move within a wider range of between a support level of 1,430 points and a resistance level of 1,500.

BPI’s Cano said if the Phisix trades sideways within the 1,450 to 1,490 range, "then this may provide some consolidation," noting that it needs to break out of the immediate downtrend line, that started since Feb. 13, 2001, at 1,490 to 1,500 for the market to set a new direction.