Business still watching and waiting - DEMAND AND SUPPLY

Erap's gone. The Supreme Court has ruled GMA is legitimate president. The PSE index has gone up somewhat, but that doesn't mean much given that trading volumes are still low. So why is business still watching and waiting?

For one thing, there's still the May election. Erap's still in the front pages – campaigning or attempting to flee. Erap's statement that he will just wait for the people's verdict in the polls has made the May exercise more important than ever. Erap obviously wants to be vindicated by the voters and that will happen if his candidates, specially Mrs. Loi, win convincingly.

GMA's People Power Coalition must score big this May or Erap can say GMA has no mandate. And if the Erap candidates end up controlling Congress, GMA will be unable to do what she must do to get the economy going. If the economy is to get a fighting chance at a recovery between now and 2004, the PPC senatorial bets must win, if possible, 13-0. Anything less than 10-3 will make GMA less effective.

I believe Mar Roxas when he says there are a lot of potential investors expressing interest in taking a risk with this country. But the road between expression of interest and ribbon cutting is long and hazardous. Anything can and often does happen.

And the one thing we must not forget is that before foreign investors like GM and those Silicon Valley types decide to put their money on us, we have to put money on ourselves first. Meaning to say, local capital that fled during the unpredictable Estrada years will have to be enticed back. For a large part, that's Chinoy money that probably ended up in Canada, Singapore and, yes, China.

Now, tell me, why will a Chinoy bring back money here when he is thinking of bringing his family out of here for fear of being kidnapped? The front pages are starting to report an upsurge in kidnappings in the Chinoy community. I don't think the new PNP chief had something to do with it, as Ms. Teresita Ang See earlier warned. But the coincidence is there. And he must do better than claim it is all politically motivated.

Maybe President GMA should give the PNP chief a week to stop the kidnap rush and solve the pending cases or hand in his resignation. He may have nothing to do with the upsurge but he sure as hell is starting to look helpless. If they must kidnap, maybe he could re-direct the kidnap gangs to the Chinoy cronies of Erap, at least the ones who are still here so they can't escape. But leave the ordinary Chinoy entrepreneurs alone. We need them for our economy to recover.

It is bad enough that the economic conditions in the United States, our principal trading partner, are still uncertain. Even if we are under the best of conditions, it may be difficult to entice investors here if they are worried about their home market. To even get noticed, we have to make certain that our local conditions are top rate: No political uncertainty, minimum graft and corruption, excellent personal security. Without those three "musts" our economy will remain mediocre, even without Erap in Malacañang.

President's time

Incidentally, the business sector can probably also contribute to national development by making an effort not to invite President Arroyo too much. It is understandable, given our cultural norms, that everyone wants the President to deliver a speech here, cut a ribbon there, be a sponsor in a wedding and such things. But has anyone wondered where the President can get the time and energy to run the ship of state if she had to run all over to honor invitations?

Maybe, unless the event is truly earthshaking for the nation, the presence of the relevant Cabinet member should do. Even those courtesy calls at the Palace eat up a lot of time. While I am not saying the President should isolate herself, I believe she should be given a lot of quality time to deal with problems of state rather than deliver ceremonial speeches.

She only has 24 hours a day, like you and me. And she's also human and subject to physical exhaustion. We owe it to ourselves to be on our own, disengage ourselves from this national conspiracy to waste the President's time. That may have been alright with Erap since he isn't exactly the hands-on type that GMA is. But having seen GMA work, I know she will go through all that paperwork even if it means, having to phone a Cabinet member at two in the morning.

Monterey and Mad Cow

Monterey Food's president, Arthur Juan wrote to react to our column last week on the mad cow disease. Mr. Juan clarifies that Monterey's shipments, including those controversial ones that landed in Cebu, are covered with veterinary certificates from the country of origin attesting that they are free of the mad cow contaminant. But they sent it back anyway because it arrived when the ban was already in effect.

Mr. Juan also wrote that Monterey stopped importing from Europe the moment the ban was imposed. He also emphasized that they have quality control personnel who ensure that its high standards of quality and hygiene are met at all times. He emphasized that they do their business with quality and responsibility high in their minds.

Okay, so you say. But it is difficult not to be skeptical these days. The fact that government clearances have been obtained can no longer be taken as a reliable guarantee. I also get the feeling that the response of Mr. Juan sounds a bit bureaucratic when he implied they accepted two of the three shipments that arrived before the ban was imposed belatedly by the Philippine government.

The mad cow problem had been on for some time and the world had long been shying away from European beef. It is just that, as usual, the Philippine government took a long time to impose the ban. Why did Monterey even try to import from Europe prior to the ban knowing that other Europeans no longer allowed importation among themselves? Simply because European beef was cheaper. Did Monterey wonder why European beef was cheaper than say, Australian, despite the distance?

Problem solved

Taxiing down the tarmac, a jetliner abruptly stopped, turned around and returned to the gate. After an hour long wait, it finally took off.

A concerned passenger asked the flight attendant, "What was the problem?"
"The pilot was bothered by a noise he heard in the engine," he explained.
"So it took an hour to fix the problem?" she asked.
"No," he replied, "It took us an hour to find a new pilot."

(Boo Chanco's e-mail address is [email protected])