With record palay output for the first nine months this year, however, Agriculture Secretary Edgardo J. Angara said the volume of importation could be lower.
Corn production, on the other hand, is expected to increase by eight percent to 1.089 million MT from this year’s first quarter figure of 1.008 million MT.
The palay and corn crop forecasts for January to March 2001 were prepared by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS).
BAS Director Romeo Recide in a report to Agriculture Secretary Edgardo J. Angara said next year’s first quarter palay production will be lower because farmers, anticipating the El Niño phenomenon, will reduce the area devoted to palay planting.
BAS estimates that from January to March next year, palay production in irrigated areas will be trimmed by 0.4 percent to 952 hectares, from 971 hectares this year, while rainfed areas planted to palay will be down by 8.1 percent to 591 hectares from 643 hectares.
The yield per hectare for the irrigated areas will be lower by 1.2 percent to about 3.42 tons per hectare while the yield in rainfed areas will even be lower at 1.93 tons per hectare.
In contrast, corn output is forecast to reach 1.089 million in the first quarter of 2001, exceeding this year’s January to March crop by eight percent.
BAS said this will be the result of the 7.1-percent expansion in intended plantings as farmers anticipate a more favorable weather for corn and a slight improvement in the overall yield per hectare.
BAS also projected the 2000 palay crop to have a robust growth despite the damage wrought by typhoons Reming and Seniang.
Recide’s report showed that of the October-December crop, about 57 percent of palay crops and 20 percent of corn crops are estimated to have been harvested already.
In areas affected by typhoons Reming and Seniang, 41 to 81 percent of standing palay crops were harvested, while 35 to 85 percent were harvested for corn.
With the current estimates of some 280,000 MT of palay crop damaged by the typhoons, the year’s crop is 2.2 percent lower than the October forecast of 12.7 million MT.
However, the BAS forecast of total palay crop for 2000 at 12.4 million MT was already exceeded by the palay output of 12.5 million MT from January to September alone.
Angara said the increased palay production could be attributed to the high usage of certified seeds which increased from 15 percent to 65 percent, while increasing hectarage of irrigated area, and putting back on stream, about 74,000 hectares of palay lands with the rehabilitation of irrigation systems.
Angara said a decision on the volume of importation will depend on actual production figures expected in the next few weeks.