Cash in or withdraw? Avoiding a clash with GCash’s mega-IPO

Notes on the beat

MANILA, Philippines — Experts say timing is critical to a successful initial public offering (IPO).

With GCash announcing that its blockbuster IPO is already on the way, will other aspirants rethink their listing plans this year to avoid a clash with what could potentially be the biggest IPO in the country?

That could be a possibility, if you ask some of the country’s top market experts.

“For smaller IPOs, I think it will be a timing risk and they may delay their listing after the GCash IPO due to limited capital” Franco Fernandez, equity research analyst at DragonFi Securities Inc., said.

“GCash has been a highly anticipated IPO since it was first teased and is highly likely to pull capital away from other listings if they happen close to each other,” he said.

China Bank Capital Corp. managing director Juan Paolo Colet said that as with any massive IPO, particularly one of such magnitude as GCash is expected to be, there is a potential risk to near-term liquidity for other equity offerings.

Colet noted that the risk is more pronounced for smaller companies that rely primarily on domestic investors, who may instead concentrate their attention and capital on GCash.

“Issuers that are sensitive to this dynamic would be well advised to calibrate the timing of their market debut to avoid clustering too closely with the GCash mega-IPO,” he said.

The country’s IPO scene has been lackluster so far, with no market debut yet this year. The Philippine Stock Exchange Inc. (PSE) had earlier hoped to see four IPOs in 2026, up from the two listings in 2025.

Given the ongoing drought, excitement over the GCash IPO peaked anew last week after its parent company Mynt Inc. announced that its board and shareholders have authorized the filing of a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a listing application with the PSE.

The offer will be equivalent to 12 percent of Mynt’s total outstanding capital stock post-IPO, with each common share having a par value of P0.03 per common share.

Mynt has yet to provide a timetable, saying that any potential offering remains strictly subject to the registration requirements of the SEC, listing requirements of the PSE, prevailing market conditions, transaction structure, governance approvals and other customary closing conditions.

However, a Wall Street Journal report said the fintech pioneer behind the finance superapp is looking at a potential listing by the fourth quarter, expecting to raise over $1 billion, which would eclipse Monde Nissin’s record high $1 billion IPO in 2021.

Now that the GCash IPO is no longer a matter of “if,” but a question of “when,” IPO aspirants are expected to keep a close watch.

That said, Colet still believes that companies with a compelling and well-differentiated investment story should not be overly concerned about being overshadowed or crowded out.

“For instance, a REIT IPO is basically a yield-oriented, quasi-fixed income play that is likely to appeal to a distinct investor base. Another fintech listing with unique selling points could benefit from heightened sector interest,” Colet said.

“Even mid-sized or smaller IPOs can achieve success on the strength of their own corporate fundamentals and prospects, combined with supportive broader market momentum,” he added.

First Metro Investment Corp. head of research Cristina Ulang said that past mega-listings like that of Monde Nissin and Maynilad (P34.34 billion IPO in 2025) prove that the Philippine market has the depth to support massive IPOs, showing that strong business fundamentals can overcome a volatile PSE index.

Ulang pointed out that mega IPOs do not deter small IPOs, but actually does the opposite.

She believes that it could in fact act as a long-term major catalyst that encourages and opens the floodgates for smaller issuers through a sort of “halo effect.”

“GCash IPO is not going to rush to list. Mynt is taking a highly calculated approach – waiting for clearer, undeniable evidence of a durable upward trend in the PSEi to achieve premium valuation,” Ulang said.

Investment and Capital Corp. of the Philippines president and COO Manny Ocampo also thinks there should be no issues or crowding out of other IPOs amid GCash’s planned mega offering – unless Maya also goes out this year.

Fintech player Maya, a rival of GCash, earlier expressed plans to go public through a dual listing that will start overseas in the second half of the year, which will be followed by an IPO in the Philippines.

As for GCash, Ocampo said that if properly priced and marketed, its IPO might bring back interest in the capital markets.

“With more than 70 million users, the whole issue can be absorbed by the market and hopefully new investors (GCash users),” he said.

Mynt is the first and only $5 billion unicorn in the Philippines. The popularity of the GCash app as well as the potential size of its IPO has made it one of the most anticipated listings in the PSE.