Public told to prepare for El Niño

CEBU, Philippines — PAGASA has declared that El Niño conditions are already present in the tropical Pacific, with an 80 percent probability of developing into a full-blown El Niño episode.

Engr. Jhomer Eclarino, chief weather forecasting specialist of PAGASA-Visayas, said the relative sea surface temperature anomaly reached the 0.5-degree Celsius threshold in May, meeting the criteria under the agency’s new study for declaring the presence of El Niño conditions.

“Most climate models suggest there is over an 80 percent probability that this will develop into a full-blown El Niño event, which is likely to persist until early 2027,” Eclarino said in an interview with THE FREEMAN.

Despite the onset of El Niño conditions, Eclarino clarified that the country will continue to experience rainfall during the southwest monsoon, or habagat, season.

Areas on the western side of the country are expected to experience above-normal rainfall due to the prevailing monsoon and the possible influence of tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

However, he noted that once the effects of El Niño become more pronounced, some parts of the country may experience below-normal rainfall, which could lead to dry spells and drought conditions.

Eclarino said that El Niño poses risks to water security, food production, and energy supply, prompting the activation of the El Niño Task Group and the implementation of various mitigation measures by concerned government agencies and local government units.

He further explained that PAGASA had previously issued an El Niño Watch in March to raise awareness and preparedness, followed by an El Niño Alert in April to encourage early action.

This latest advisory now calls for the implementation of concrete measures to mitigate the anticipated impacts of the weather phenomenon.

Eclarino said households should take advantage of the frequent rains during the habagat season by practicing rainwater harvesting.

He also emphasized the importance of water conservation, noting that El Niño typically brings prolonged periods without rain and higher temperatures.

For June, DOST-PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel T. Servando, in the same advisory, said near-normal rainfall conditions are expected across the country, with higher chances of above-normal rainfall over the western section of Luzon.

One to two tropical cyclones are also expected to develop within or enter the PAR this month.

PAGASA’s assessment showed that below- to way-below-normal rainfall conditions were experienced across Luzon and most parts of the Visayas in May, except in Bohol, Eastern Samar, Leyte, and Southern Leyte, which received near-normal rainfall.

Near- to above-normal rainfall conditions, meanwhile, were observed across Mindanao.

Based on the rainfall assessment, 19 provinces experienced meteorological drought, while 29 provinces were under dry-spell conditions and four provinces experienced dry conditions.

Slightly warmer- to warmer-than-average temperatures were likewise recorded in most parts of the country.

Three weather stations established new maximum temperature records for May, namely: Tanay, Rizal, with 34.3 degrees Celsius on May 27; San Jose, Occidental Mindoro, with 38.7 degrees Celsius on May 8; and Puerto Princesa, Palawan, with 36.5 degrees Celsius on May 24.

Meanwhile, near-average to warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast in most parts of the country, although isolated areas may experience slightly cooler-than-average conditions.

Servando said the agency will continue to closely monitor the ongoing El Niño conditions and their associated impacts on the country’s climate.

He urged government agencies and the public to implement appropriate preparedness and response measures, particularly in areas vulnerable to heavy rains and flooding during the habagat season and in areas susceptible to below-normal rainfall conditions. — /IHM (FREEMAN)