Ukraine plays down Russian invasion fears as US sounds alarm
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine on Sunday pushed back at "apocalyptic predictions" over a potential Russian invasion, after US officials sounded dire warnings that Moscow had stepped up its preparations for a major incursion.
US officials said the Kremlin had assembled 110,000 troops along the border with its pro-Western neighbour but intelligence assessments have not determined whether President Vladimir Putin has actually decided to invade.
The Russian force amassed on the frontier is growing at a rate that would give Putin the firepower he needs for a full-scale invasion — some 150,000 soldiers — by mid-February, US officials have said.
They assess that Putin wants all options at his disposal, from a limited campaign in the pro-Russian Donbas region of Ukraine to a full-scale invasion.
Russia denies that it is planning an incursion into Ukraine.
Kyiv — backed up by some European allies — has consistently sought to play down fears of an imminent attack as it tries to prevent further harm to its struggling economy.
"Do not believe the apocalyptic predictions. Different capitals have different scenarios, but Ukraine is ready for any development," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on Twitter.
"Today, Ukraine has a strong army, unprecedented international support and the faith of Ukrainians in their country. It is the enemy who should fear us."
Ukraine presidency advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said the latest Russian moves were "no surprise" as Moscow has sought to keep up pressure on Kyiv by conducting large-scale troop rotations, manoeuvres and weapon deployments on a regular basis since massing forces at the border last spring.
European diplomatic push
The stark warnings from the United States — part of a deliberate attempt from Washington to pre-empt any Russian actions — come as Europe pushes to defuse the crisis.
French President Emmanuel Macron heads to Moscow on Monday and Kyiv on Tuesday seeking to de-escalate the crisis and push forward a stalled peace plan for the festering conflict with Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
On Sunday Macron discussed the crisis with US counterpart Joe Biden.
"The leaders discussed ongoing diplomatic and deterrence efforts in response to Russia's continued military build-up on Ukraine's borders, and affirmed their support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," the White House said in a statement.
"We have to be very realistic," Macron told the JDD weekly.
"We will not obtain unilateral gestures" from Russia "but it is essential to avoid a deterioration of the situation before building mechanisms and reciprocal gestures of trust", he said.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will travel to Washington for the first meeting of his chancellorship with Biden on Monday.
The following week Scholz will visit the region for talks with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
US officials said if Moscow does opt for a full-scale attack, the invading force could take the capital Kyiv and topple Zelensky in a matter of 48 hours.
They estimated such an attack would leave 25,000 to 50,000 civilians dead, along with 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian ones.
It could also trigger a refugee flood of one to five million people, mainly into Poland, the officials added.
Biden has reacted to the buildup by dispatching some 3,000 American forces to bolster NATO's eastern flank, with a new batch of US soldiers arriving in Poland on Sunday.
Scholz said Berlin was prepared to send extra troops to the Baltics in addition to 500 soldiers already stationed in Lithuania under a NATO operation.
Moscow has issued demands for NATO to guarantee that Ukraine will not enter the alliance and to withdraw forces from member states in eastern Europe.
But US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told Fox News Sunday that Biden "is not sending forces to start a war or fight a war with Russia in Ukraine".
"We have sent forces to Europe to defend NATO territory," he said.
Special forces, naval buildup
US intelligence has concluded that Russia is continuing to muster a major military force on its border with Ukraine.
Two weeks ago, a total of 60 Russian army battalions were positioned to the north, east and south of Ukraine, particularly in the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed after an invasion in 2014.
By Friday, there were 80 battalions and 14 more were en route, US officials said.
They added that some 1,500 Russian "Spetsnaz" special forces arrived along the Ukraine border a week ago.
Russia has also announced what it calls joint military manoeuvres with Belarus, where it has sent several battalions to the north of Kyiv.
A major Russian naval force is also positioned in the Black Sea, equipped with five amphibious vessels that could be used to land troops on Ukraine's southern coast, the US officials said.
In other deployments, Russia has positioned fighter planes near Ukraine, as well as bombers, missile batteries and anti-aircraft batteries, US officials said. — with Sylvie LANTEAUME in Washington
President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday secured Turkey's crucial backing for Ukraine's NATO aspirations after winning a US pledge for cluster munitions that could inflict massive damage on Russian forces on the battlefield.
Washington's decision to deliver the controversial weapons — banned across a large part of the world but not in Russia or Ukraine — dramatically ups the stakes in the war, which entered its 500th day Saturday.
Zelensky has been travelling across Europe trying to secure bigger and better weapons for his outmatched army, which has launched a long-awaited counteroffensive that is progressing less swiftly than Ukraine's allies had hoped. — AFP
Washington's decision to supply Ukraine with ATACMS long-range missiles is "a grave mistake", Russian ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov says Wednesday.
"The White House's decision to send long-range missiles to Ukrainians is a grave mistake. The consequences of this step, which was deliberately hidden from the public, will be of the most serious nature," he says in a statement. — AFP
President Vladimir Putin says Sunday that Russian forces had made gains in their Ukraine offensive including in Avdiivka, a symbolic industrial hub.
"Our troops are improving their position in almost all of this area, which is quite vast," he says in an interview on Russian television, an extract of which was posted on social media on Sunday. "This concerns the areas of Kupiansk, Zaporizhia and Avdiivka." — AFP
The regional governor says debris from a drone destroyed over the Russian region of Belgorod, which borders Ukraine, fell on homes and killed three people, including a young child.
The air defense system "shot down an aircraft-type UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) approaching the city", says Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, adding that the falling debris destroyed several homes.
"Most importantly, three people were killed, one of them a small child," he writes on the Telegram messaging app, accompanied by pictures of a house reduced to a pile of rubble behind red and white police tape. — AFP
Ukraine's air force says on Tuesday that it had destroyed 27 of 36 Russian attack drones overnight in the south of the country.
Ukrainian forces downed 27 "Shahed-136/131" drones in the southern Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa regions, the air force said on the messaging platform Telegram.
In all, Moscow had launched 36 of the Iranian-made drones from the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014, it says. — AFP
The Kremlin claims on Friday Russian forces never targeted civilian infrastructure after Ukraine blamed Moscow for a missile attack that killed over 50 people in the eastern village of Groza.
"We repeat that the Russian military does not strike civilian targets. Strikes are carried out on military targets, on places where military personnel are concentrated," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says in his daily briefing. — AFP
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