News Analysis: Islamic State's overconfidence could prove to be weakness

WASHINGTON (Xinhua) - Overconfidence could prove to be a weakness for the Islamic State (IS) militant group as it exposes its fighters in open terrain amid a US bombing campaign aimed at destroying it, experts said.

"One Islamic State weakness is the fanaticism that drives it to seek further conquests - in each case massing fighters and equipment in mostly open country that makes for an exceptionally target rich environment for air power," Wayne White, former deputy director of the US State Department's Middle East Intelligence Office, told Xinhua.

The group's brazenness stems from its belief that members are destined by the will of a higher power to overtake a vast swath of territory in the Middle East and establish a caliphate, and that has made them an extremely motivated and lethal fighting force, experts said.

"The fact that this group continues to mass in large numbers, thus making themselves vulnerable to air strikes by US forces, demonstrates just how confident this group has grown over the past several months," RAND Corporation associate political scientist Colin P. Clarke told Xinhua.

Because IS controls so much territory across Syria and Iraq, it has been able to establish safe havens and sanctuaries where it has been able to train, organize, rest, re-equip and recuperate with relative impunity, largely unmolested by US forces, Clarke said.

But that could change, analysts said.

"Exposing themselves by massing in large numbers is definitely a current weakness and I would expect this to change moving forward," Clarke said, contending that the frequency and lethality of US air power will force the group to operate more covertly.

"Air power may force (IS) to operate less like an insurgent group and more like a terrorist organization," he said.

While IS does not have major anti-aircraft technology, the group's shoulder-fired weapons can still be dangerous, analysts said.

"We've seen numerous examples in contemporary history, including the effective use of shoulder-fired weapons in places like Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Lebanon," Clarke said.

"It is important to remember that the United States is one of several adversaries IS is fighting. Those weapons that may prove ineffective against American forces can still provide (IS) with an advantage over other Syrian groups as well as Assad regime loyalists," Clarke added.

The US strategy against IS militants is at the moment vague, and in general is aimed at degrading and destroying the radicals.

White said that at present it is not possible to have a comprehensive strategy because allies have shunned cooperation and the Iraqi government has not met the pressing need to deliver a sweeping, credible initiative to woo various non-extremist Sunni Arab elements away from IS.

Turkey's refusal to permit the basing of NATO strike assets much closer to their targets is a significant military setback that is reducing the number of air strikes per day per aircraft, especially over eastern Syria and northern Iraq, White said.