There are people who said that more than 200,000 TNTs (illegal Filipino immigrants) who are now hiding in many nooks and crannies in the US are cowering in fear, worried and anxious when President Donald Trump shall make good his promise to expel and deport all illegal aliens from America on his very first day in office. Trump is also going to impose high tariffs on Philippine goods and services.
I was not for Trump all the way, but I also see a ray of hope for the Philippines in the light of his very strong bias against China. If you agree with me that the enemy of your enemy is your friend, then Trump can be our friend, after all. Trump is appointing a group of businessmen and professionals who are rabid anti-China. These signs indicate that the West Philippine Sea will continue to be protected by the US and that means that America will put up a very strong resistance to the strategic thrusts of Chinese leader Xi Jinping at a hegemony in the Asia-Pacific. It is the common consensus of geopolitical observers that the US is going to strengthen its alliances with Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
The Asia-Pacific basin or the Indo-Pacific region is commonly considered as the most dynamic and the fastest-growing region which is accepted as the strongest driver of American security in this part of the world. On a larger perspective, this region accounts for more than half of the total world population which includes India with 455,732,164 people, China with 1,418,118,202, Indonesia with 283,487,931, Pakistan with 252,729,671, Bangladesh with 174,358,272, Japan, 123,294,513, and the Philippines with 119,106,224. We should also remember that the Indo-Pacific region accounts for no less than 60% of the world's total GDP and two-thirds of the global economic growth.
The Philippine business community is concerned with Trump's "America First" policy. The businessmen fear that the US under Trump will definitely put pressure on the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and even Australia and New Zealand to liberalize each country's trade policies to facilitate the entry of American goods and to lock out Chinese products. Also Trump's policy of reshoring American jobs and curbing foreign labor manning American companies pose a grave and imminent danger on the Philippines BPO or the business processing outsourcing industry.
The Philippines labor market will be greatly disrupted by Trump's anti-foreign labor policies. The policy of Trump to reclaim jobs now done by Filipino labor will cause loss of employment that will cost no less than $30 billion in revenue lost.
On immigration, Trump will make it very difficult for Filipinos to enter the US for purposes of work. Pending work visa applications may be derailed and ultimately denied. Many of the incumbent Filipino workers in America may also lose their jobs as American citizens may force their way to reclaim jobs for foreign workers, including Asians, and that means Filipinos are very much included. Remittances in the amounts of $30 to $35 billion annually are most likely to decrease, and this will be very bad news to the Philippine economy. Our GDP is bound to shrink by no less than 10% at the very least.
The Philippine economic team must be able to reformulate our strategic and tactical plans so as to navigate the coming turbulent waters of the socio-economic scenario under the Trump presidency. We should never forget the old adage that whenever America sneezes, the Philippines gets the flu.