The way I look at it, ABS-CBN has been outwitted, out-maneuvered, and out-flanked by its enemies. It’s like Daniel inside the lion's den. To survive, its lawyers and strategists should take another look at Sun Tzu's “Art of War”.
The first principle used against ABS-CBN is: “All forms of warfare are based on deception”. They were deceived, made to believe during the Senate hearing in March, that a provisional franchise would be granted. Its greatest mistake was falling into that trap. It put all its trust in one plan, without a Plan B or Plan C. Instead of honoring its words, the NTC issued what you may call an ambush “cease and desist order”. Its issuance was also based on another principle in the art of war, which is, “don’t give your enemy time to retreat, inflict a mortal wound”. That was why the order was immediately executory. ABS-CBN didn’t protect its back. It was overconfident, much to its dismay.
The third principle is “when your enemy is wounded by its recklessness in the first deception, finish him off with another surprise attack”. ABS-CBN was again led to believe that a five-month provisional franchise would be given. Its supporters were already agreeing to it, albeit grudgingly. It was better than nothing to tide it over while the 25-year franchise was going to be deliberated. Again, the second ambush was done, at the most unexpected moment. From out of nowhere, House leaders announced it’s abandoning the provisional franchise and would now tackle the regular 25-year grant. That was a master stroke that bewildered and confused ABS-CBN. And it even makes the House majority look magnanimous by supposedly acceding to the network's appeal. What a clever maneuver.
The fourth principle is “Appear weak when you are strong, and appear strong when you are weak”. The truth is that the House is very strong. The speaker, the sultan of Taguig, has the full support of all the lords, barons, and earls, from the majority coalition. But he appears meek, humble, speaking words from the Bible, and appearing powerless, giving up the presiding chair to his underlings and subalterns, while he goes around the House whispering the strategy. The Senate, on the contrary, is weak. It’s all roar, all bark and no bite. It’s weak because it cannot act legally without the House first completing the final form of the bill. It isn’t proper for the senators to show their bias for ABS-CBN. The forces against the network are silent but ready to attack.
The fifth principle is to use timing to one's advantage. ABS-CBN's Waterloo is timing. It bleeds each day of delay with billions of unrealized revenues, unearned profits, while it has to pay thousands of employees and other fixed costs. Its enemies are aware the target is wounded. Then the House will take almost forever in its debates, allowing at least 250 of its 300 members to talk and argue ad infinitum. Christmas will come without Cardo Dalisay. “Ang Probinsyano” will be on extended lockdown. The House has a big reason. It has to attend to the COVID-19 crisis, and ABS-CBN isn’t a priority, much less indispensable to national interests. Besides, in the name of due process, its millions of supporters, as well as detractors have to be heard. That means forever. What a perfect strategy.
The sixth principle is to push the enemy to fight in various fronts. The Senate, the House, the Supreme Court, the NTC, the solicitor general and the court of public opinion. This is Machiavelli's divide and conquer. The forces of ABS-CBN are divided and confused. And the seventh principle of Sun Tzu is appear to be an ally when you are really Brutus about to stab Caesar’s back, or Judas kissing Jesus before turning him over to the Romans. What a brilliant strategy indeed. ABS-CBN is like Kim Chiu in a classroom, being surrounded by the forces of Sun Tzu. But, like David, God will protect ABS-CBN. That’s according to Nostradamus.