My latest survey among the Filipino communities in the US tells me that there is a strong possibility that the Democrats can beat Donald Trump in November. If he could not be ousted by impeachment, he could be made a one-term president by the powers of both the popular votes and the electoral college. The Democrats are very strong in California, New York, Massachusetts, Washington, and Hawaii.
In the unlikely event that Trump could manage to do a repeat of how he was defeated by Hillary Clinton with more than two million popular votes plurality, in 2016 but won just the same in the electoral college, it will be largely because the Democrats are not well-organized. If his reelection, if at all, would happen, it won't be because he is the better candidate. It is more because his opponents are unprepared, unorganized, and could not even manage a simple state caucus like that chaos in Iowa. The Democrats bungled the first round. If they do not shape up, they will be eaten alive by the Republicans.
What I am disappointed about is the fact that they could not get their act together in planning, organizing, and implementing an electoral process that they have been doing every four years since 1824 when the Democratic Party was founded. Until now, many days after the day of the caucuses, there is still no final and official report on the complete outcome of the process. The organizing committee insists that they are after accuracy rather than speed. But they have been doing these for almost 200 years now, and they seem to be deteriorating and the party members are not happy. I hope that the primaries in New Hampshire will be better executed.
I have high hopes that the Democrats can recover and finally win this year. Some 24 delegates are up for grabs in New Hampshire tomorrow, February 11. On February 22, another 36 delegates will be contested in Nevada, and 54 on February 29 in South Carolina. The most awaited is Super Tuesday, March 3, where no less than 1,344 delegates are up for the picking with 13 states having primaries altogether, including California with 415 delegates; Texas, 228; North Carolina, 110; Virginia, 99; Massachusetts, 75; and Colorado, 67, among others. There will be 360 delegates to be contested on March 10 in Mississippi, Missouri, and North Dakota. Some 577 delegates are up for grabs on March 17 in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.
The Democratic National Convention will be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, from July 13 to 16, where the Democratic presidential and vice presidential candidates will be formally chosen. Many Americans believe that whether it is Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders, or Biden, he or she will have the historic chance to defeat a very controversial incumbent. I am crossing my fingers for that.