In 2010, while more Filipinos did not vote for Noynoy, they ended up spreading their votes (20,930,424 and not counting the 81,985 cast for a disqualified bet named Acosta) over eight other candidates. This allowed Noynoy to escape with enough votes (15,208,678) to win on a plurality. Now the six-year term of Noynoy is fast drawing to a close. The 2016 elections will be a good opportunity to test the validity of his 2010 mandate.
That there were more than 20 million who did not vote for Noynoy as opposed to the 15 million plus who did shows that more Filipinos in 2010 either did not believe in Noynoy's platform of clean and honest governance or did not think he can pull it off. For the 2016 elections, while Noynoy himself is legally banned from seeking another term, he is again promising the nation that his anointed one, Mar Roxas, is fit and able to continue what he has started.
In other words, the platform of Roxas will be exactly the same as that of Noynoy's in 2010. And since Noynoy won only on a plurality in 2010, the 2016 election should be seen as a referendum not only on his minority mandate but also on the success of his platform. Interestingly, Roxas himself will hardly be a factor in his own election. Even at this writing, just days after his endorsement by Noynoy, the talk is still about continuity rather than about Roxas' own person.
To be sure, no post-endorsement survey has yet emerged to say if it did anything for the standings of Roxas. Prior to the endorsement, Roxas was nailed to a far fourth behind Senator Grace Poe, Vice President Jejomar Binay, and even Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte. But if the angling of all the stories in media about the endorsement is any indication, the interest has not shifted from continuing the Noynoy legacy as opposed to the kind of leader Roxas would be.
This being the case, it is now clear that Roxas will not be pushing for his own platform of government. He will have to toe the official line that his presidency would be a continuation of what Noynoy has started. Roxas will have to be the torch-bearer for the Noynoy legacy of supposed clean and honest government. That was made pretty clear when Noynoy declared his endorsement of Roxas.
It was never about Noynoy and the Liberal Party standing behind and fully supporting Roxas in whatever he plans to do in case he gets elected president. It was always about continuing what Noynoy started and Roxas being the perfect person to do it. In effect, the presidential bid of Roxas will not be a showcase of his own talents and capabilities, his own uniqueness as a person, his own plans for the country, his own visions as a leader. It will be about Noynoy and nothing but.
And that could make Roxas a very weak candidate. As a referendum on the validity of Noynoy's "straight path" governance, the 2016 elections will be a very crucial if interesting political exercise. After the results are out, this country will finally see whose truth will prevail on the issue of clean and honest governance. What the 2016 elections will never be is as test of Roxas' own worth as a leader.
At least with Poe and Binay, they will not be tested over someone else's legacy. They will rise and fall on their own merits and weaknesses, as well as on the issues that have been raised against them. That being so, they will at least be able to prepare for what their enemies and critics can hurl against them. After all, they already know what to expect.
With Roxas, he is just like a leg runner in a relay, entirely dependent on how the previous runner performed. It is an inherent infirmity, and built-in handicap that Noynoy unwittingly foisted on his anointed one. It would have been far easier to sell Roxas as his own person, given the vast and potent resources in the hands of the ruling administration party.
Remember, this will be a referendum on Noynoy's own platform of governance, a platform that more than 20 million Filipinos rejected already in 2010, as opposed to being sustained by only 15 plus million. To be sure, many Filipinos believe the platform was a success just as many Filipinos believe it was not. The point is, there is no Roxas in a picture that is a referendum on Noynoy.
If Roxas wins, it will not be a reflection of his own merits as a person but merely a validation of Noynoy's platform and a willingness to believe his promise that Roxas will be able to continue it. But at least he still wins and gets to be president on someone else's scorecard. The sad and sorry thing is if Roxas loses because he will lose not of his own doing but as a result of a rejection of Noynoy's platform.