The latest surveys on voter preference for the presidential elections in 2016 show Vice President Jejomar Binay still ahead as he has always been in all past surveys. The latest numbers from Pulse Asia has Binay rebounding a little to 29 percent after falling to 26 percent from previous highs on account of the allegations of corruption raised against him, most by his own potential rivals.
Many predicted the fall of Binay to continue and that he will never recover. He probably would never have recovered if his fall had been allowed to continue on its own momentum. But his detractors never knew when to stop. His detractors at the Senate, in particular, made their inquisition so scandalous people eventually got turned off. This can be seen in their own numbers falling even further to now scrape the bottom of the barrel.
Many Filipinos today have little doubt that many of the allegations raised against Binay are true. But they have little doubt as well that the allegations were raised for purely political reasons than from a genuine longing to seek justice and bring about reform. And if there is one thing Filipinos hate to the core of their being is to be taken for a fool, to be taken for a ride.
The realization that the detractors of Binay were after his neck for less than pure reasons was mainly responsible for arresting the fall of Binay in the surveys. Binay could be laughing secretly in glee over the development, but there is no denying that the picture of being persecuted eventually became more believable than what his detractors were saying, even more believable perhaps than the detractors themselves, as evidenced by there own very lowly numbers.
But the latest Pulse Asia survey did more than just show Binay as the beneficiary, perhaps undeservedly, of a sympathy vote. It also showed the level to which the disappointment of Filipinos has fallen. This is very evident in the sudden appearance of Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte as a contender, and in a tie for 3rd and 4th places with Manila City Mayor Joseph Estrada behind Binay and Senator Grace Poe at 2nd, a very strong contender indeed.
And why would Duterte rate so highly? Is it because of his leaning toward federalism? Now that could not be because there have been other, more popular, federalist advocates who have come before him. The only reason that comes to mind for the sudden surge of Duterte is his reputation of being iron-fisted. Most people heard only stories about Duterte. But when he appeared at a hearing on smuggling at the Senate, he electrified the nation when he said he would shoot smugglers.
It is difficult to believe this Christian nation would suddenly prefer murder as a solution to shenanigans. But Filipinos probably took Duterte figuratively. His persona exuded a no-nonsense toughness a despairing nation desperately needs. Their expectations in the present leadership have been failed. They feel betrayed. It is a strong leadership they want, which is why there is also Erap there beside Duterte, even if Erap's toughness springs from somewhere else. Perception is everything.