The US has blinked in Syria. But if you think its repercussions are limited to dictating a new course to the crisis in that Middle Eastern country, you are terribly wrong. Unless immediately corrected in the next few days (no US military intervention yet as of this writing), it could alter global geopolitics as well.
The US not only blinked in Syria, it was a terrible blink to boot. After some intense and high profile sabre-rattling by the Obama administration, the US did not balk because of some inscrutable second thoughts about what its actions might do to that divided country.
The US balked at the thought that it might go it alone, and more importantly at the prospect of having to take on some of Syria's pernicious allies, notably Russia and Iran, both of whom have undertaken positionings that clearly sent their intent across.
Russia, in particular, has deployed its navy to strategic striking distance positions to any sphere of action that might involve the US. Russia is, of course, no match for the US in any war of attrition. But that is not going to take place any time soon. What will likely happen is a little game of Russian roulette that the US, or more precisely Barrack Obama, is not willing to take for fear of being drawn into some very awkward and embarrassing situations. The US is not afraid of Russia. But it fears tiny little inconveniences that can result in very red faces.
If the US attacks, Russia is not going to intervene. It is merely going through the motions in an apparent display of affection for its partner Syria. But any going through the motions is certain to draw the US into some reaction, like a lot of gun cocking and barrel pointing, but with fingers off the triggers.
The US does not want that. Most especially, it does not want that with only France possibly on its side. If it came to a choice, the US would rather have a much more reliable ally in Britain. But the Brits are far more sensible and have refused to be drawn to what is clearly an internal conflict.
But these are global power plays that are far removed from the Philippines own sphere of influence. We can roar mightily over here, one way or the other, and all our roaring will not affect one bit how the wind blows in the Middle East.
Yet, while we are far too puny and isolated to be of any real help in a situation that does not require it, we nevertheless stand to reap the whirlwind in case things go awry over there. In fact, developments now unfolding in Syria hold very important lessons for the Philippines.
If there is any given already, it is that the US does blink after all. This should give some food for thought for Philippine officials who have decided to put all their eggs in one basket behind the US in dealing with an aggressive China over sovereignty issues in the South China Sea.
If the US balks at the prospect of drawing in Russia and Iran into the Syrian crisis and thus escalate matters into a regional, and potentially global, conflict, what and where is the assurance that it will not do the same if China hedges and refuses to budge, or worse -- decides to eyeball the US?
More importantly, where does that leave us? The moment the US blinks in the South China Sea, it is all over for our eggs. Indeed, the US hesitation in Syria should not be lost to China. At this very moment, it could already be smacking its lips in glee.
In Syria, all that is at stake for the US is its reputation as the global policeman, who cannot countenance any crimes, as when a regime gasses its own people. Being a world cop is not a mandate given by anyone. The US simply took it upon itself to be one. It can actually look away if it wishes to.
Over here, the US is bound, ostensibly, to a mutual defense pact with us. That should be reassuring for us, isn't it? After all, if it can get angry in a situation where its hands are not committed in stone, it should be no less than righteous indignation over our fate in the hands of China.
But I do not think so. I do not think the US will allow itself to get into a situation where it might blink, its Syrian fiasco notwithstanding. The US fully understands there will be no face-off with China in these parts. We are in this alone.