Just about even
For Miami and Indiana, today’s Game 5 is a must-win. Whoever prevails from a 2-2 series tie historically has the momentum going and from the way both teams had been playing, there seems to be no clear winner on this one.
Let’s rewind to last year’s NBA playoffs. The Heat prevailed over the Pacers in Game 5 from a 2-2 tie and went on to win the semis in six games. In the next round, Miami, playing Boston for the East Finals, lost Game 5 at home to the Celtics. They recovered on the road and took Game 6 and then went on to win the Conference Finals at home in seven games.
My point here is that the Heat, statistics or history not withstanding, make their own destiny. This is a team that almost everybody has pre-ordained to repeat as NBA champions. But one team is out to prove the majority wrong.
I do not doubt their capacity to repeat but then again, I will be using statistics to support some vital facts.
Filed goal percentages between the two teams are almost identical. Miami converts 47% of their shots and Indiana submits 46%. The Heat produces a 34% conversion rate from beyond the 3-point line compared to the 37% of the Pacers.
It is in rebounding that the Pacers have a big advantage as they out-rebound the Heat by 10 per game. Roy Hibbert, with a 12 rpg average, has decided that the paint is his dominion, taking advantage of the fact that Miami is doing the series without a real center.
Of the Heat’s top guns (LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Ray Allen), only the man they call the King had been consistent. D-Wade is just averaging below 14 points per game and is noticeably limping with his troubled right knee. Allen does not see enough playing time and is just good for about 5 points.
Bosh averages less than 4 rebounds a game, the same average as Allen’s who is six inches shorter and plays 30 minutes less than him. From the knee and ankle tweaks he got the last game, Bosh will be very tentative in his moves and I think we will be seeing more of The Birdman, Udonis Haslem, Shane Battier and maybe Joel Anthony today.
Lance Stephenson and George Hill provide the outside threat for Indiana and they will draw out the Miami defense. LeBron will be guarding an equally strong and mobile David West and because of this, he can’t leave his man behind. This will open Hibbert and Paul George to do their damage.
Danny Granger’s career playoff averages of 15.6 points, 2.4 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game will be missed by Indiana but Stephenson, since being elevated to the starting line-up in lieu of Granger’s injury, has stepped up.
This close series will be decided by judgement calls and it could go either way. There were questionable calls the last time around and with bodies banging and flopping against each other on a playing court growing smaller by the year with the increasing heft and bulk of the people using it, referees can surely mistake or misinterpret a flop from a real contact.
Miami and Indiana are doing a rugged and rough series and both can take a beating. Well, it’s the Conference Finals, baby. Meanwhile, a well-rested San Antonio Spurs awaits, which is very welcome for Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, who has a combined age total of 34. A bit old compared to LeBron, Wade and Bosh’s 29 y.o. and Hibbert, George, Hill and West’s 27 y.o.
If Indiana steals one from Miami today, this series will go seven games. Whoever wins, the Spurs will have a very hard time, no matter how well rested they may be. If Tony Parker is controlled, end of story. But above all else, I dare say, GO SPURS!
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