Cebu gears up for El Niño

CEBU, Philippines — Cebu is stepping up preparations to cushion the impacts of strong El Niño, with water and power agencies warning of potential supply challenges as the dry period intensifies toward the end of the year.

During the Kapihan sa PIA discussion on “El Niño Outlook: Water and Power Preparedness,” PAGASA Visayas weather specialist Jhomer Eclarino said the country is currently experiencing a strong El Niño that is expected to intensify into the very strong category between September and December and persist through the first half of 2027.

PAGASA’s Sept. 23 climate advisory also warned that the phenomenon is expected to intensify during the September-December 2026 period and continue into the first half of 2027.

Eclarino said the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean had reached 2.1 degrees Celsius, prompting the classification of the current El Niño as strong.

He said climate experts expect the phenomenon to reach the very strong category by the end of 2026.

Despite the El Niño, Eclarino said rain may still occur, particularly from the Intertropical Convergence Zone and localized thunderstorms.

For Central Visayas, however, rainfall has already declined, with Eclarino citing an 89% reduction in rainfall in the previous month and a 52% reduction in September based on PAGASA’s assessment.

For October, rainfall in Central Visayas is expected to range from below normal to near normal.

PAGASA has previously warned that below-normal rainfall could continue toward the dry season, while El Niño is expected to persist through the first half of 2027.

Alternative water sources

Metropolitan Cebu Water District (MCWD) General Manager Atty. John Dx Lapid said the water district has been preparing for El Niño since April through regular briefings with PAGASA.

Among MCWD’s measures are the installation of booster stations and the revival of groundwater sources and deep wells.

Lapid said groundwater sources are expected to be less affected by El Niño than surface water, although their volume could still decline.

MCWD is also coordinating with bulk water suppliers for additional desalinated water.

Lapid said the agency is targeting additional desalinated water by November, particularly if rainfall drops significantly in November and December and remains low into early 2027.

He said MCWD is also looking at additional supply from Carmen, Cebu.

However, Lapid acknowledged that desalinated water is more expensive than conventional sources.

Some areas of Metro Cebu could experience reduced water supply, and rationing may become necessary if the effects of El Niño worsen, Lapid said.

He said MCWD is conducting hydraulic studies to determine whether water can be delivered through pipelines instead of relying solely on water trucks.

Booster pumps are also being positioned to allow MCWD to move water from one part of Metro Cebu to another, depending on where supply is available.

Lapid said the southern portion of Metro Cebu is expected to be among the areas most affected.

He said MCWD is also preparing to replace lost water supply in northern areas where necessary.

The MCWD El Niño committee is set to hold weekly meetings to ensure preparations are in place before the anticipated stronger impacts of the dry period in November.

Lapid said MCWD’s water sources consist mainly of groundwater, surface water and desalinated water, with surface water expected to be the most vulnerable to prolonged dry conditions.

Among the sources discussed were the Mananga River, Cotcot River in Compostela, Lusaran and the Luyang River in Carmen.

Lapid said MCWD expects the Cotcot River supply to potentially reach zero during a severe El Niño.

He also cited Lusaran, where a possible loss of about 20 million liters per day (MLD) could affect around 20,000 households.

The Luyang River in Carmen, meanwhile, has historically remained relatively resilient during dry periods, Lapid said.

He added that groundwater could decline but would be affected less severely, while desalinated water remains available as an alternative source.

Transmission network preparations

National Grid Corporation of the Philippines-Cebu-Bohol Operations and Maintenance Senior Manager Engr. Marcelino K. Bagatsolon II said NGCP is also strengthening its transmission network preparations in anticipation of the effects of El Niño.

Among the measures are comprehensive audits of transmission lines, preparation of substations and coordination with local government units on vegetation management and other maintenance activities.

Bagatsolon also appealed to the public to avoid flying kites near transmission lines, warning that kites or other objects that come into contact with energized lines could trigger a line trip and potentially disrupt power service.

He also highlighted the importance of protecting the TUGS underground cable, a critical transmission facility connecting Cebu City to the Mandaue GIS.

According to Bagatsolon, the underground cable has already been hit by excavation activities about five times.

He urged contractors and other groups conducting excavation works along the Hernan Cortes-Mandaue GIS route to coordinate with NGCP before digging so the location of the cable can be identified and protected.

He recalled an earlier incident in which a cable was damaged and subsequently affected by flooding, making repairs more difficult.

Damage to major transmission facilities can cost millions of pesos, aside from the economic losses caused by prolonged downtime, Bagatsolon said. — /FPL (FREEMAN)