PAGASA predicts weak El Niño

CEBU, Philippines - After surviving a super typhoon late last year, Filipinos must prepare for another climate-related phenomenon as weather authorities predict a dry spell before the year ends.

Authorities, however, said that no formal advisory on occurrence of El Niño has been issued yet except for inter-agency precautionary verbal warnings.

Alfredo “Al” Quiblat Jr., chief meteorological officer of PAGASA Mactan, revealed that local and international data show a “50-50” chance of experiencing El Niño.

“Duna tay prediction, dili lang kita sa PAGASA, kundi apil na international predictions in Australia, America, among others. June siya most likely magsugod with 50 percent chance nga mahitabo. Pero masinati nato diri mga last quarter of the year,” Quiblat said during the Kapihan Forum organized by the Philippine Information Agency Cebu office.

Fortunately, this dry spell is seen to be weak based on the data analysis. Weak El Niño, Quiblat explained, is the lowest in intensity experienced for a period of three to four months.

With this, the Department of Agriculture urged the farmers to prepare in order to minimize the effects of the dry spell, similar to the one experienced in 2010.

DA-7 assistant director Marina Hermoso said the agency has learned lessons from the previous El Niño experiences especially the severe one experienced in 1992.

“Even if weather authorities predict that this will be a weak one, preparation should be the same as for severe El Niño. The severe El Niño should be the benchmark. There are lessons that we learned from that. While this is a natural phenomenon, we can minimize the effect on farmers if we know how to strategize,” Hermoso explained.

The first lesson from the 1992 severe El Niño is to distinguish and identify lands that can still be used even during the dry spell.

“Mangita ta’g yuta nga pwede pang katamnan. For example, kanang irrigated lands. Pwede pa man ng tamnan kay mabuhi pa man ang tanom ana. Watering crops should also be done more than the usual. Also, we discourage using commercial fertilizers during this time kay kusog ni mu-consume og tubig which tends to be scarce during this time. Mas maayo nga mag organic fertilizer,” she said.

Livestock and other animals, on the other hand, must also be protected by more hydration and keeping them away from direct sunlight.

“Kung duna tay mga kaha-yupan, mas maayo nga ato silang ibutang sa kamalig aron dili sila mainitan. Alang niadtong mga kabaw, pangitaan nato’g lunangan nga limpyo ang tubig aron makapabugnaw sila. Mas sayon pangitaag paagi ang kahayupan. Ang crops ang mas apektado aning El Niño labi na sa mga dili irrigated farms. We are strengthening information dissemination that farmers consider planting those that can withstand the heat. Kun dili gani, i-timing nga mag-harvest na sa dili pa magsugod ang El Niño,” Hermoso said.

DA-7 technical director Joel Elumba said that the dry spell usually leads to decreased production.

“Heat affects fertility of animals thereby preventing reproduction despite mating. Wala ko manghadlok but based on experience, there is decrease in production on water dependent crops including rice. The same with livestock. Nutritional requirements are usually not meant. So dunay decrease in terms of production quality and quantity,” Elumba explained.

El Niño is defined by United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as a “phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a positive sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the Niño 3.4 region greater  than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), averaged over three consecutive months.”

This is normally categorized into three: weak, moderate, and strong or severe. — (FREEMAN)