Agriculture pulled down Q3 GDP growth

Just visited the Bicol region this week and saw the damage brought about by Typhoon Kristine. Among the provinces, Camarines Sur was the worst hit. While the government is doubling down in its relief efforts in this hard-hit region, we can only imagine how difficult the situation will be to the farmers who are totally dependent on their produce for a living in this region.

Undeniably, nationally, our economists, when agriculture contracts, their usual default (as causes), among many, are the over twenty (20) typhoons that hit the country annually.  The other reasons being weather extremities. So that, in the first quarter of this year, we blamed the long dry spell for the dismal performance of the agriculture sector at a year-on-year growth of just .02%.

To recall, in May, last year, PAGASA issued an “El Niño alert” saying that “the weather phenomenon might emerge between June and July at 80 percent probability and might persist until the first quarter of 2024.” It seems, however, that the drought last year wasn’t worse as expected and we were able to weather the impact of such phenomenon then. PAGASA, however warned then that the problem was, while the dry spell and drought were forecasted to only persist until the first quarter of this year, they were already expecting then that it will last until the end of the second quarter.

True enough, it did and the consequence was harsh. As we all know, even if year-on-year the gross domestic product (GDP) went up by 6.4% in the second quarter, the agriculture sector went down by 2.3%. Worse, as heavy rains came and inundated the urban areas, farm lands were never spared.

Just this week, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that the country’s GDP “slowed to 5.2% in the third quarter of 2024, down from 6.4% in the second quarter.”  The same report indicated the “positive growth in several sectors, including wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (5.2%), financial and insurance activities (8.8%) and construction (9%). Also, “Industry and Services posted year-on-year growths in the third quarter of 2024 with 5.0% and 6.3%, respectively,” it added.

The expected growth in the aforementioned sectors was weighed down (per PSA) by a “decline in agriculture.”  The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector contracted by 2.8% year-on-year.  According to NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, “crops suffered a year-on-year decline of 2.8% due to the severe effects of the El Niño phenomenon and a series of cyclones that struck the country, slowing down production.”  Well, as several typhoons wrought havoc in October and this month, expect that the fourth quarter won’t be any different.

To those in the industry and services sectors, life will go on. To the farmers, however, it is a lot different.  It is about their existence. Obviously, as such will be disastrous and render farmers (especially, the small ones and subsistence farmers) penniless. So that, it is disheartening sometimes that there are people who do not see it that way.

However, knowing fully well that the agriculture sector is just a single-digit contributor to our economy, the government may just try to trivialize its impact on the economy. Hopefully though, instead of just solely relying on imports for our food shortages, it will afford this sector the same degree of preference as trivializing it will have a lasting negative impact to the agriculture sector and food security. Needless to say, the unbearable food costs especially to poor families.

More importantly, let us not blame the long dry spell for our miseries.  Desert-filled countries in the middle east have extended dry seasons. Yet, they are living normal lives. For one, as early as in the 1980s, recognizing their insufficient supply of water, Israel embraced a technology that addressed such predicament. The drip system or water diet. Knowing fully well that leaves only need sunlight and roots need water, they simply water the roots in small drips. Thus, a pale of water will have a longer reach.

On the other hand, knowing that plants only need soil to stand on, due to the lack of land for agriculture, Singapore embraces hydroponics. Using some pipes, they made their roof decks their farms. Moreover, other countries, don’t use paddies, they are using lakes and rivers to grow rice in floating rafts.

Indeed, there are a lot of farming technologies that we can embrace. To make these work, the government must also provide low-cost loans and the necessary infrastructure, such as, farm to market roads, irrigation, storage facilities, transport equipment, packing and processing facilities.