Yolanda: Locally (not nationally) disastrous

Calamities, manmade or natural, are part and parcel of mankind’s existence.  Therefore, avoidance or discipline (for manmade) and preparation (for natural) are the best available options for us to mitigate the calamities’ impact.  More often, however, despite our relentless efforts, the calamities’ strength and the extent of the damages they brought are just too much to contain.  The result, we are rendered helpless, albeit, temporarily.  And as always been customary, the “blame game” ensues and the already horrible state worsens.

Today, as we struggle to gather whatever are still considered useful from the rubbles left by super-typhoon Yolanda, let us ponder a bit and take a look at what may await us in the future.  Since economic well-being will always be in the forefront in all these recovery efforts then we must try to take a look at the economic impact of this catastrophe. Yes, significantly, we almost lost everything that matters economically in Eastern Visayas (Region 8).  However, granting that we lost everything, then, we lost the region’s contribution to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a little over 2%.  Looking at the bigger picture, such figure cannot significantly influence at all the country’s GDP.

Analyzing the country’s GDP on the spending side, the main drivers are the government’s infrastructure spending and consumer spending.  Certainly, these two main drivers will heavily figure out in the next couple of months or years.  For one, with hundreds of bridges, kilometers of roads and countless of public schools, hospitals and other publicly owned buildings destroyed, the government will set aside huge amounts for their reconstruction.  Moreover, relatives of those affected families who are productively employed in the country’s unaffected areas as well as those working abroad will surely send money for their respective families’ recovery efforts too. 

Therefore, expect that as we start rebuilding, we shall see a lot of opportunities we've never seen in normal times.  For instance, amid heaps of debris, clearing operations present countless of chances even to those lacking in skills or inadequately educated.  Home repairs provide great prospects to our carpenters who, for decades, have been begging for jobs.  Construction workers will be in demand as the government speeds up the restoration of school buildings as well as stretches of roads and bridges.  Then, expect a surge in demand for construction materials, medicines and death-related activities like funeral services.   As demand increases the need for more workers follow.  In all, these activities shall address employment concerns on the deprived sector, and shall, somehow, contribute to the dreamed inclusive growth. 

However, locally and on the family level, issues and concerns will be entirely different.  Depending on the person’s tolerance, the trauma brought about by Yolanda will linger for months or years.  These are circumstances that some of them might take time to overcome or not at all.  Coupled with the supposed inadequacies on the relief side or financial support from relatives who may not have the same fortune as those who have the opportunity to work abroad, recovery may take longer or may not be achieved at all.On the other hand, on the recovery efforts for businesses, the issues differ depending on whether these are locally owned (and locally doing business) or just branches of nationally operating institutions.  Definitely, those that are locally owned and are doing business locally will have difficulties in recovering.  Among those that shall be badly hit will be the localbanks (like rural banks).  Unlike commercial banks where, probably, the contribution of their branches in the region could only be below 3%, rural banks are totally doing business among locals.  Thus, looking at the present scenario, their customers’ deposit will remain demandable while their extended loans will remain uncollectible.

Despite this prevailing aura of hopelessness, however, it can be recalled that in the last three years we have had several successful recovery efforts.  Though the extent of Yolanda’s fury was way above the other catastrophes, it can be recalled that not long ago, we had flashfloods in the cities of Iligan and Cagayan de Oro.  Apart from last month’s killer quake, we had one last year in Negros Oriental.  Moreover, who can ever forget what happened to Compostela Valley, Davao Oriental and the two provinces of Surigao.  In all these calamities we all stood again and have shown the world how resilient we are by performing even better (GDP wise) compared with the other countries in Asia.

In the meantime, however, we should thank God that amid heaps of nameless corpses, tons of debris and a handful of dumb founded  government officials, unaffected countrymen as well as representatives from foreign donor countries have joined hands to help alleviate the terrible pains our brothers and sisters reluctantly endured. 

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