Which trend will break?

The two PBA Commissioner’s Cup semifinal series could end in Game 6 at the Ynares Center, Antipolo, today as there’s only a 43 percent chance that either duel will go to a Game 7. But in the TNT-Meralco series, the trend indicates an alternating win pattern and if that continues, the battle will be settled in a Game 7 at the Smart Araneta Coliseum on Wednesday.

The win order in the Ginebra-Rain or Shine series is different. ROS took the opener then Ginebra recoiled to claim Games 2 and 3. ROS struck back in Game 4 before Ginebra erected a 3-2 series lead in Game 5. Following this trend, Ginebra could close it out today.

PBA head statistician Fidel Mangonon notes that regardless of whether there will be a Game 7 in either series, the team with a 3-2 lead has an 80 percent chance of clinching. That makes TNT and Ginebra the favorites to advance to the Finals. But bookmakers will advise it’s not a sure thing despite the odds.

“In PBA history, exactly 80 percent of teams which took 3-2 leads in a best-of-seven semifinal or final overall, went on to win the series or title,” says the PBAologist. “It’s a higher 85 percent in the semis only.” In terms of attendance, Fidel reveals that every semifinal playdate so far has brought in at least 10,000 paying fans with an average of 12,370. It’s the highest average audience in the first five playdays of a series since the Ginebra-Bay Area Commissioner’s Cup Finals in 2023.

In Game 5 at the Big Dome last Friday, TNT posted its highest assist total in the semis, 23. It entered the contest with the conference’s lowest ranking in average assists at 15.4. Jayson Castro’s reinstatement as a starter had a lot to do with it. He finished with a game-high seven assists and his influence was contagious as Jordan Heading had six and Calvin Oftana, five. It was also an indication that TNT had broken off the Bol Manute Bol syndrome where his immense individual talent made team play somewhat irrelevant. Chris McCullough’s reemergence as an offensive force will be a headache for Meralco in Game 6. The Bolts, however, are resilient with new import Patrick Gardner providing the energy and effort that his predecessor Marvin Jones couldn’t consistently offer.

In the other series, Ginebra’s bounce back from a Game 4 loss was a KO blow. RJ Abarrientos was held to a single digit for the first time this conference in Game 4 then erupted for 31 in Game 5. Ginebra’s X-factor Troy Rosario had a quiet three points in Game 4 then, back as a starter, delivered 16 points, seven rebounds and three assists in Game 5. ROS’ depth will be critical to wear down Ginebra’s short rotation and extend the series to a Game 7.