Upset in the making?

MANILA, Philippines —The NBA Finals reel off today (8:30am, Manila time) with top-seed Oklahoma City battling Indiana in a 2-2-1-1-1 hosting format where the homecourt advantage seems to have lost some significance in this season’s playoffs.

Entering the Finals, road teams won 44 percent of playoff games with the Pacers showing the way by taking six of 12 triumphs away from home.

OKC led the NBA regular season with a 68-14 record while Indiana was fourth in the Eastern Conference at 50-32, tied for sixth overall with the LA Lakers, Denver and LA Clippers. In the playoffs, Indiana disposed of higher seeds Cleveland (No. 1) in five and New York (No. 3) in six. Upsetting the applecart has become a habit with Indiana whose coach Rick Carlisle was a Pacers assistant when the team went to the 2000 Finals and the Dallas head coach when the Mavs won the Larry O’Brien trophy in 2011. Let’s not forget Carlisle, as a player, was on the Boston team that claimed the NBA crown in 1986 so championship pedigree is evident in his resume.

But can Carlisle manufacture another upset in the Finals? OKC won eight at home and four on the road to notch a 12-4 record in the playoffs. The Thunder blanked Memphis in the first round then took out Denver in seven and Minnesota in five. Coach Mark Daigneault isn’t as decorated as Carlisle but has made his mark as a creative innovator who enjoys a special connection with his players. An assistant coach is Chip Engelland whose influence as a shooting doctor is reflected in OKC hitting 81.9 percent from the line to top the regular season. Beyond the much-ballyhooed duel between MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton, the Finals are about OKC’s defense against Indiana’s offense.

Here are 10 factors to make a difference in the Last Dance.

Bench. Six Pacers are averaging in double figure points in the playoffs compared to OKC’s three but there are seven Thunder players logging at least 20 minutes a game to Indiana’s five. OKC plays a deeper rotation but Indiana generates mileage from more players. Advantage: Indiana.

Offense. In Indiana’s 12 playoff wins, the Pacers averaged 122.5 points and in four losses, 99.8. Indiana has scored at least 120 in eight of its 12 wins. OKC hit at a 120.2 clip in 12 wins but shot at least 120 in only four. The 149-106 win over Denver in Game 2 was an aberration. Advantage: Indiana.

Defense. OKC’s wins came while holding opponents to 100.3 a game. In four losses, opponents averaged 124. The Thunder’s defense is anchored on 7-1 Chet Holmgren 7-0 Isaiah Hartenstein and blue-collar worker Lu Dort. Advantage: OKC.

Rebounding. OKC is averaging 44.3 boards in the playoffs and Indiana, 39.6. Pascal Siakam is the Pacers’ leading rebounder, averaging 5.8. OKC’s Twin Towers get a lot of rebounding help from SGA and Jalen Williams. Advantage: OKC.

Passing. Indiana thrives in a run-and-gun pace. Pacers are averaging 28.1 assists with Hali norming 9.8. Indiana’s ability to create open shots with ball movement is a major positive. Advantage: Indiana.

Court control. Because of its edge in rebounding and defense, OKC is able to dictate tempo. The challenge is to stymie Indiana’s transition attack. Advantage: OKC.

Coaching. It’s a close call but Carlisle has the edge with his experience. Both coaches are masterful and quick to make adjustments. Carlisle, however, has fought in more wars than Daigneault. Advantage: Indiana.

Consistency. Throughout the regular season, OKC has shown dominance and beat Indiana twice, 132-111 and 120-114. In playoff clinchers, OKC crushed Denver by 32 and Minnesota by 30. Advantage: OKC.

Staying power. OKC has younger legs with an average age of 24.4 years. Alex Caruso, 30, is the Thunder’s senior player. Indiana’s average age is 26.2 and three players are at least 30. OKC’s deeper rotation is crucial. Advantage: OKC.

Hunger. OKC won a title when it was in Seattle in 1979 and lost to Miami in the 2012 Finals. Indiana has never won an NBA crown and its only Finals appearance was in 2000 when the Pacers lost to the Lakers in six. Advantage: Indiana.

In a short series of four or five games, the Pacers should win because Indiana can shock OKC into submission with its explosive offense. But in a long series of six or seven, OKC will wear down Indiana with its stifling defense and staying power.