To end or extend?

MANILA, Philippines — TNT’s hopes of snagging a Grand Slam this season hang in the balance as Barangay Ginebra looks to close out the best-of-seven PBA Commissioner’s Cup Finals with a bang in Game 6 at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight. A win by Ginebra will finish the duel, 4-2, but a win by TNT will extend it to a Game 7 on Friday.

If TNT survives Game 6 and takes Game 7, it’ll be the Tropa’s second jewel of the 49th campaign, just one short of a Grand Slam with the third conference coming up. But a Grand Slam is far from coach Chot Reyes’ mind at the moment. His priority is to prevent Ginebra’s clincher tonight.

Momentum is on Ginebra’s side after winning Games 4 and 5, dealing TNT its first back-to-back losses in the Finals and second of the conference. Justin Brownlee played the last two contests with a reconnected right thumb and has been an inspiration on the court, playing hurt but playing strong. He’s adjusted the release of his shot because grip was compromised by the injury. It’s no wonder that Brownlee has missed all five three-point attempts in both games. He’s resorted to flipping jump-hooks, floaters and push shots so there’s little reliance on his thumb.

With Brownlee recalibrating his offense, coach Tim Cone has put more emphasis on defense. In Game 5, Ginebra blanked Calvin Oftana the entire second half and RR Pogoy had only two points in that stretch. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson scored seven in the first quarter then four in each of the next three. In all, TNT was held to 11 points in the third frame and 10 in the fourth. TNT was scoreless in the last 4:03 and Ginebra delivered an 8-0 closer to win, 73-66.

The stats reflect Cone’s philosophy. In Ginebra’s three Finals wins, TNT was held to an average of 71.3 points, never scoring 80 or more. In Ginebra’s two defeats, TNT hit at a 91 point clip. It’s a difference of 20 points when Ginebra wins with defense. In contrast, TNT’s defense hasn’t been as impressive as in its two Finals wins, Ginebra was limited to an average of 87. TNT has taken 40.7 percent of its shots from three in the Finals, shooting 31.6 percent. If TNT is hot from deep, it’s likely to win and Cone knows that. In TNT’s two wins, the Tropa shot 40.3 percent and averaged 12.5 conversions from three but in three defeats, it hit 24.7 percent and averaged 7.3 makes. There’s a reason why Ginebra closes out hard on TNT’s shooters.

Jayson Castro’s absence has taken a heavy toll on TNT’s ability to facilitate. Oftana and Pogoy aren’t shot creators. They need to be set up for their shots. Rey Nambatac is more of a shooting guard than a point guard but he’s had to adjust with Castro’s exit. The problem is he’s not a natural facilitator. There’s no one who fits the bill in Reyes’ rotation. Reyes made some tactical adjustments in Game 5, putting Kelly Williams on Brownlee, bringing Nambatac off the bench and starting Poy Erram. Cone, however, had a move to counter every TNT trick.

For TNT to win Game 6, the Tropa has to cut off Ginebra’s passing lanes, recover quickly to defend the open man when doubling, not hesitate to pull the trigger and apply pressure from the backcourt to delay the advance of the ball. For Ginebra to clinch, it has to control the boards, take away TNT’s second opportunities, situate Brownlee in the perimeter – not at the low post where it’s easier to double him – to take shots from mid-range off cuts and constrict RHJ’s driving room to force him to take contested outside jumpers.

Reyes beat Cone in their previous Finals matchup with RHJ outplaying Brownlee. Ginebra’s out for payback and it could happen tonight. But TNT isn’t about to roll over and die. Expect an epic battle in Game 6.