Magnolia on the upswing

Magnolia has won four do-or-die games in a row and two more will clinch a semifinals ticket in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup. The Chicken Timplados Hotshots finished No. 8 in the eliminations, recovering from a 1-4 start and had to turn back NLEX in a playoff for a seat in the quarterfinals. They’re up against No. 1 NorthPort at the Ninoy Aquino Stadium tonight. With a twice-to-beat advantage, all the Batang Pier needs is one win to advance and send Magnolia to the exits. That means two chances to win one for NorthPort, putting Magnolia’s back against the wall in a precarious situation.

Magnolia coach Chito Victolero is casting his fate to defense. In the Hotshots’ last three contests, they’ve held opponents to an average of 83.7 points, a clear indication of where Victolero finds the pathway to victory. Victolero’s second group of Zavier Lucero, Jerom Lastimosa, Calvin Abueva, Paul Lee and Rome de la Rosa is a killer with NorthPort’s ability to match that firepower severely tested.

NorthPort is coming off back-to-back wins and has lost only to Phoenix, Meralco and Rain or Shine this conference. Coach Bonnie Tan’s three-headed monster of Kadeem Jack, Arvin Tolentino and Joshua Munzon is a handful with William Navarro, Fran Yu and Allyn Bulanadi providing continuity off the bench. But Magnolia’s depth is a scare and if the Hotshots put the clamps on NorthPort’s hitmen, winning two in a row is easily doable.

History, however, isn’t on Magnolia’s side as in a total of 146 playoff pairings with a twice-to-beat edge since the 1996 Governors’ Cup quarterfinals, only four No. 8 teams won over No. 1. Curiously, NorthPort was the last No. 8 squad to do it, upending NLEX in the 2019 Governors’ Cup.

What’s keeping Magnolia’s spirits up is the memory of the franchise beating NorthPort despite a twice-to-win disadvantage in the 2015 Governors’ Cup. NorthPort has frittered away a twice-to-beat edge in two previous quarterfinal encounters so bowing to Magnolia won’t exactly be a rarity. NorthPort has advanced to only two semifinals in the 2015-16 Philippine Cup and 2019 Governors’ Cup.

In the 1996 Governors’ Cup, the Magnolia franchise survived six knockout games after a 1-6 start before losing to San Miguel in the quarterfinals. So far, they’ve survived four. There’s a slightly higher probability for No. 7 to beat No. 2 than No. 8 to upset No. 1 but it remains to be seen if Eastern can defeat TNT twice in the other quarterfinal encounter tonight.