To Manny, Nonito it’s a must-win

Losing isn’t an option for both Manny Pacquiao and Nonito Donaire, Jr. when they battle separate opponents on the same bill at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas this morning (Manila time). A loss could mean the end of their careers and neither fighter seems ready to call it quits with big-money bouts looming in the horizon.

Donaire, 33, defends his WBO superbantamweight crown against unbeaten Jessie Magdaleno who celebrates his 25th birthday on Tuesday. Pacquiao, 37, is out to dethrone WBO welterweight king Jessie Vargas who’s making his first defense of the throne he claimed by stopping Sadam Ali last March.

Neither Vargas nor Magdaleno has fought anyone of significance.  Vargas has faced former world champions Tim Bradley, Antonio DeMarco, Steve Forbes and Vivian Harris but none is a potential Hall of Famer. Ali, whom Vargas stopped for the vacant WBO title, was previously unbeaten but his opponents wouldn’t even make the grade as Class B fighters. So while Vargas has lost only once and Magdaleno is undefeated, you wonder if they’ve ever been tested in the ring.

In contrast, Pacquiao and Donaire have locked horns with some of the world’s best ever. The Ring Magazine recently came up with the finding that Pacquiao’s record against likely future Hall of Famers is 12-4-1 and his record against world titleholders is 20-5-2. Donaire hasn’t done badly himself with fights against Guillermo Rigondeaux, Fernando Montiel, Jorge Arce, Vic Darchinyan and Nicholas Walters all of whom could someday be inducted into the Hall of Fame. In terms of quality of opposition, it’s like night and day comparing the fighters whom Pacquiao and Donaire have battled to those whom Vargas and Magdaleno have encountered.

But there’s danger lying ahead of Pacquiao and Donaire. They’re facing much younger opponents who are hungrier and itching to make a name for themselves as giant-killers. Vargas is 10 years younger than Pacquiao and Magdaleno, nine years younger than Donaire. They were just kids when Pacquiao and Donaire turned pro. Now, they’re on the same marquee as the legends.

If Pacquiao wins convincingly, he’ll likely take on Mexican Juan Manuel Marquez next in a “payback” fight, their fifth meeting. Then, if Pacquiao disposes of Vargas and Marquez, he’ll face Floyd Mayweather in a grudge rematch of the ages. The Mayweather rematch would be a fitting swan song for both Pacquiao and the Money Man. It’ll be their farewell bout for retirement money. Obviously, if Pacquiao loses to Vargas, there may not be another fight for the Filipino icon who’s turning 38 next month.

It’s the same situation with Donaire. If he takes care of Magdaleno, the plan is for Donaire to either meet Rigondeaux in a much-awaited rematch or move up to challenge unbeaten WBA featherweight titlist Carl Frampton of Belfast. Frampton is booked to fight Mexico’s Leo Santa Cruz in a rematch in Las Vegas on Jan. 28. Donaire could challenge the Frampton-Santa Cruz winner in a huge payday. Rigondeaux is another option. The Cuban slickster survived a knockdown to beat Donaire on points three years ago and is unbeaten with a 17-0 record. Rigondeaux is now 36 and holds the WBA superbantamweight belt. A unification duel between Donaire and Rigondeaux would be a box office treat.

If Donaire is unable to repulse Magdaleno, his dream of a big-money fight against Rigondeaux or Frampton or Santa Cruz will go down the drain. So like Pacquiao who’s on track for a Mayweather rematch, Donaire can’t afford a loss to Magdaleno.

Pacquiao should be able to take care of Vargas with no difficulty. Vargas is hittable, doesn’t move too much and likes to engage. Although he’s not known for his power, Vargas has a strong overhand right that could trigger cobwebs in the brain if it lands. Coach Freddie Roach said Pacquiao can’t take Vargas lightly because after all, he’s a two-time world champion. Pacquiao has to respect Vargas to win decisively. If he doesn’t, Vargas could surprise with an upset.

Despite the age difference, Pacquiao is a lot faster than Vargas. Speed is an essential ingredient in Pacquiao’s fight formula. It’s imbedded in his style. Vargas doesn’t rely on speed as much as establishing distance in taking command of a fight. Vargas is longer and taller than Pacquiao so expect him to use his jab to stay clear of the Filipino’s strike zone. Vargas will use his overhand right when Pacquiao comes in but whether he’s quick enough to unload under duress is a question mark. Pacquiao will dazzle Vargas with his hand-speed and footwork. Once Vargas tastes Pacquiao’s power and is overwhelmed by flurries, he’ll backtrack. That will be the signal for Pacquiao to go for the kill.

Pacquiao hasn’t scored a knockout in his last 11 fights. Roach said Vargas could be Pacquiao’s first inside-the-distance victim since Miguel Cotto in 2009. Vargas isn’t like Magdaleno who punches with a kick like a mule. Magdaleno is a fast starter with eight first round knockouts in compiling a 23-0 record laced by 17 stoppages. He’ll open the fight charging out of his corner and that’s how Donaire likes it.