No sure bet

The playoffs begin in the PBA Philippine Cup on Friday, Christmas Day, with No. 5 Globalport taking on No. 8 Barako Bull and No. 4 Barangay Ginebra facing No. 9 Star Hotshots at the Mall of Asia (MOA) Arena. The next day, it will be No. 6 Talk ‘N’ Text meeting No. 7 NLEX and No. 3 Rain Or Shine battling No. 10 Blackwater, also at the MOA Arena.

Globalport, Ginebra, TNT and Rain Or Shine enjoy a twice-to-beat advantage so all they need to do is to win once and it’s off to the second phase of the quarterfinals. That means to stay alive for the next phase, Barako Bull, Star, NLEX and Blackwater must win two do-or-die games in a row. And since the second phase will feature a knockout format similar to FIBA, the Energy, Hotshots, Road Warriors and Elite must win three straight do-or-die contests to make it to the semifinals. That’s a tall order but in the PBA, anything is possible because the competitive balance has made for unpredictable outcomes.

Take, for instance, what happened to Rain Or Shine last Saturday. The Elasto Painters were on their way to clinching the top seed and an outright ticket to the semifinals when they came across NLEX. The Road Warriors were coming off four consecutive losses so it didn’t look like Rain Or Shine would be derailed, particularly as the Painters had won five of their last six, including the last two. But overachieving NLEX pulled off an upset, tripping Rain Or Shine, 111-106.

If Rain Or Shine won, they would’ve tied San Miguel Beer and Alaska for first place with identical 9-2 records. Since the Painters beat the Beermen and the Aces in the eliminations, they would’ve clinched the top seed and an outright semifinals slot, leaving San Miguel and Alaska to dispute No. 2 in a playoff. From the expectation of finishing No. 1 and taking a break while awaiting the quarterfinal survivors in the semifinals, Rain Or Shine fell to No. 3. Now, the Painters have to go through two quarterfinal phases to reach the semifinals.

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What’s intriguing in this conference is the knockout format in the second phase of the quarterfinals. The winners of the Rain Or Shine-Blackwater and TNT-NLEX series slug it out in a knockout game for one semifinals ticket while the winners of the Ginebra-Star and Globalport-Barako series will also figure in a you-or-me duel for the other semifinals slot – two games to decide which two teams will advance to the semifinals to battle San Miguel and Alaska in separate best-of-seven series.

In the semifinals, San Miguel will play the survivor among Rain Or Shine, Blackwater, TNT and NLEX and Alaska will face the survivor among Ginebra, Star, Globalport and Barako. It’s highly possible that San Miguel and Alaska will end up crossing swords in the best-of-seven finals.

Rain Or Shine will lean on its 103-81 thrashing of Blackwater in the eliminations to keep a leg up on the Elite in their encounter on Saturday. Coach Yeng Guiao said recently that Paul Lee may be reactivated for the playoffs and it will be timely to welcome the Lethal Weapon back with the Painters fresh from the setback to NLEX. The Elite won only four games and lost 29 last season. Now, Blackwater has won three in just one conference so clearly, coach Leo Isaac is making headway with team owner Dioceldo Sy’s squad.

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TNT lost to NLEX, 107-101, in the eliminations but the Road Warriors must beat the Tropa twice in a row to make it to the next phase. TNT has lost two of its last three. Mo Tautuaa played sparingly with an aching back against Ginebra last Sunday. Without an imposing big man to protect the middle, the Texters found it difficult to stop Greg Slaughter from rampaging. It’ll be the same story against NLEX which has a dominant center in Asi Taulava.

Ginebra is on a roll, with six wins in its last seven, including the last three. Coach Tim Cone has transformed the Barangay into a tough defensive unit and it’s paying handsome dividends. Ginebra is No. 1 in the league in defense, giving up only 84.7 points a game. The only other team surrendering less than 90 an outing is San Miguel at 89.4. Star beat Ginebra, 86-78, in their conference opener but the Barangay has since evolved into a legit title contender. Star hasn’t been consistent and lost four in a row in the eliminations but the Hotshots are a fighting squad with an all-star cast led by James Yap and Marc Pingris. This series will be a dogfight.

Globalport has won four of its last five and is teeming with confidence behind Stanley Pringle and Terrence Romeo. The Batang Pier defeated Barako, 105-91, in the eliminations so that’s a positive coach Pido Jarencio will bring to the quarterfinals. The Energy, however, is well-coached, hungry and dangerous. Unlikely hero Willy Wilson is leading the charge for Barako as one of only five PBA players averaging a double-double (the others are Slaughter, JuneMar Fajardo, Taulava and Sean Anthony).

Expect the unexpected in the PBA playoffs starting this Friday.