Intriguing UAAP scenarios

Only six games are left in the UAAP senior men’s basketball schedule and there’s still no certainty as to which team will clinch the fourth ticket to the playoffs. FEU (10-2), UST (10-3) and Ateneo (9-4) are safely in the Final Four while in contention for the last slot are defending champion NU (6-7), La Salle (5-7) and UE (4-8).

The Tamaraws play NU at the Mall of Asia (MOA) Arena on Saturday and La Salle at the Smart Araneta Coliseum on Wednesday, Nov. 18. UST’s last game is against Adamson at the Big Dome tomorrow while Ateneo takes on UE to complete its double-round schedule at the MOA Arena on Saturday. The Archers play the Fighting Maroons tomorrow and FEU on Nov. 18. UE battles Ateneo on Saturday and UP on Nov. 18 in two must-win situations.

There’s a chance of a triple tie for first place. That happens if FEU bows to the Bulldogs and Archers and ends up at 10-4. If the Growling Tigers lose to Adamson and Ateneo beats UE, then UST and the Blue Eagles finish with identical 10-4 records. In this case, the team with the highest quotient takes pole position. Among the three squads, FEU has the highest plus factor of +19. UST is second at +14 and Ateneo third at -33. The Eagles are weighed down by their two losses to the Tams, 88-64 and 66-61. So FEU will clinch No. 1 while UST and Ateneo will battle for No. 2 and a twice-to-beat advantage. In effect, the duel for No. 2 will be a best-of-three series.

UST has a golden chance of moving up to No. 1 with a win over Adamson to go to 11-3. That will put pressure on FEU to win over NU and La Salle to retain the No. 1 spot. If UST and FEU wind up tied at 11-3, the Tigers will take the No. 1 position because of a superior quotient. UST beat FEU twice in the eliminations, 72-71 and 85-76. Still, both teams will enjoy a twice-to-beat advantage in the Final Four.

The more intriguing scenario is the race to take the fourth playoff spot because of the possibility of a triple tie. NU, La Salle and UE could end up with identical 6-8 records. That will happen if NU loses to FEU, La Salle wins one and loses one and UE sweeps Ateneo and UP. In this case, the team with the highest quotient gains a bye and will play the winner of a knockout match between the other two.

The results show that La Salle has a +11 edge while NU is -6 and UE -5. The Warriors beat the Bulldogs twice, 76-71 and 52-47 but lost twice to La Salle, 71-64 and 72-64. NU and La Salle split their series with the Archers winning one by four and the Bulldogs taking the rematch by eight.

So if there’s a triple tie for fourth, it will be NU and UE in a single playoff with the winner to face La Salle for fourth place.

The league’s hottest team is Ateneo and the Blue Eagles are peaking at the right time with five straight decisions over Adamson, UST, NU, UP and La Salle in that order with an average winning margin of 10. Ateneo hasn’t lost since a 66-61 setback to FEU last Oct. 11.

Ateneo coach Bo Perasol deserves credit for steering the ship over turbulent waters.  There were undeserved calls for his resignation after the Eagles lost to La Salle in the first round then the team went through negative press with the off-court shenanigans of two players. Despite the distractions, Perasol remained resolute. Perasol has announced that he won’t be back on the Ateneo bench next season so he’s calling the shots without pressure. Meanwhile, the Eagles are playing like they’re supposed to – as a team.

Against La Salle last Sunday, Perasol played 13 players and only seniors Kiefer Ravena, Von Pessumal and Fonzo Gotladera logged at least 20 minutes, indicating a deep rotation to fuel the Eagles’ breakneck pace. In contrast, the Archers used 11 players, including six who logged at least 20 minutes.

Ateneo rookie Aaron Black provided quality minutes to finish with 13 points on 5-of-9 field goals and 3-of-4 free throws. Black, 18, came off the bench to score a point a minute. He was a validation more than a revelation because it was just a matter of time before coach Norman’s son broke out. “He’s a hard worker and it’s starting to pay off,” said the Meralco coach and former PBA import who piloted Ateneo to five UAAP titles. “He’s thankful to coach Bo for giving him a break. He’s a much better shooter than me. He’s really been working on his floater, good thing they were falling (last Sunday).”

Ravena was held to four points in the first half but wound up with 15 to go with five rebounds and three assists. Ateneo came back from 10 down to take the starch out of the Archers in the third period which the Eagles took handily, 23-9, behind a searing fastbreak attack and domination off the boards. When the smoke cleared, Ateneo had more transition points, 14-2 and blanked La Salle in second chance points, 10-0. The Eagles won the battle of the boards, 48-34 and badly outscored the Archers from the line, 23-of-31 to 12-of-24. The final count was 73-62 for Ateneo.

La Salle, however, isn’t out of contention. If the Archers beat UP and FEU and NU loses to FEU, La Salle takes No. 4 with a 7-7 record. But that’s a big if. UP defeated La Salle, 71-66 and FEU crushed the Archers, 93-75, in the first round and with three straight losses, the Taft squad is on a tailspin. Besides, the Bulldogs could upset FEU, too. If NU and La Salle wind up tied for fourth, they’ll slug it out in a win-or-go-home playoff.