Numbers don’t lie

The rule of thumb in professional boxing is on the whole, fighters connect at an average rate of 30 percent of total punches thrown. That’s according to Bob Canobbio of CompuBox, the outfit that tracks punch stats for every consequential bout.

With the Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao duel coming soon in Las Vegas, I checked out their connect rates when they last fought as a basis of comparison. Mayweather landed 51 percent against Marcos Maidana in their Las Vegas rematch last September while Pacquiao hit 34 percent against Chris Algieri in Macau last November. On defense, Mayweather allowed Maidana a landing rate of 22 percent while Algieri connected 23 percent against Pacquiao.

The numbers indicate the styles of both fighters. Mayweather averaged 5.3 jabs landed against Maidana and Pacquiao only 3.5 against Algieri. Pacquiao, however, struck hardest with power shots, connecting 15.6 a round compared to only 8.5 for Mayweather.

Mayweather’s overall connect rate was computed from 166 of 326 punches. That’s an average connect of 13.8 punches and 27.2 thrown every round. For Pacquiao, his connect rate was from 229 of 669, breaking down into an average of 19.1 punches landed and 55.7 thrown every round. The stats show that from their last fights, Pacquiao threw twice more than Mayweather each round, meaning a high level of frequency with a lofty volume. While Pacquiao was less accurate, he landed more than Mayweather by over five punches each round.

From the stats, it’s safe to conclude that Pacquiao is a swarmer and Mayweather a swimmer. Pacquiao is busier in the ring and attacks relentlessly. Mayweather prefers a laid-back style, picking his shots, making his opponent miss and dictating the tempo with his defense. Mayweather is an elusive target and hard to hit. Pacquiao is all over his opponent and likes to control a fight with his firepower.

Before Mayweather’s two fights against Maidana, he posted an average connect rate of 42.3 percent over his last 10 opponents from Zab Judah to Saul Alvarez. What’s remarkable is the 10 opponents landed an average of only 18.1 percent, indicating Mayweather wins with defense, not offense.

I reviewed how Mayweather and Pacquiao performed against five common opponents and compared their connect rates. Against Ricky Hatton, Mayweather hit 39 percent and took 17 percent while Pacquiao landed 57 percent and took 23 percent.  Against Oscar de la Hoya, Mayweather hit 43 percent and took 21 percent while Pacquiao landed 38 percent and took 21 percent. Against Juan Manuel Marquez, Mayweather hit 44 percent and took 20 percent. Pacquiao landed 31 percent and took 20 percent in his fourth meeting with Marquez who won by a sixth round knockout.

Against Sugar Shane Mosley, Mayweather hit 59 percent and took 12 percent. Pacquiao landed 37 percent and took 21 percent. Against Miguel Cotto, Mayweather hit 26 percent and took 21 percent while Pacquiao landed 43 percent and took 29 percent.

Combining the stats of the five common opponents, Mayweather connected 42.2 percent and took only 18.2 percent. Pacquiao landed 41.2 percent and was hit 22.8 percent. Pacquiao had the most success with Hatton who was knocked out cold in two rounds. Hatton went 10 rounds with Mayweather before capitulating.

When Mayweather fights, don’t expect a lot of exchanges because he doesn’t like to engage. He’ll jab, stick and run, move around the ring and try to frustrate his opponent. That makes for a boring style but Mayweather couldn’t care less. All he wants is to preserve his unblemished record. He’s a low-risk fighter. But he’ll trade when hurt or pinned against the ropes. If Pacquiao doesn’t allow Mayweather space to move around, there will be fireworks.

Mayweather’s defensive stance is anchored on the shoulder roll. It’s his signature defensive move. Former WBA lightheavyweight champion and now trainer Eddie Mustafa Muhammad said “you throw a right hand at Floyd, he tucks his chin behind his left shoulder, turns to his right and is in good position to counter…really, it’s not the move that makes Floyd such a great fighter, it’s his talent level.”

Sugar Ray Leonard said he considers Mayweather a real technician. “Floyd’s shoulder roll is about perfect timing, perfect rhythm, perfect feel,” said Leonard quoted by Bernard Fernandez in The Ring Magazine. “It’s all those ingredients that allow him to be as impenetrable as he’s appeared to be for so many years. The only possible flaw I could possibly see in his makeup is if he one day enters the ring not as focused. I love the way he breaks his man down. He lures him in and sets him up.”

Olympic gold medalist and former WBC supermiddleweight champion Andre Ward said if Mayweather’s reflexes aren’t as sharp as they used to be, there could be trouble with the shoulder roll. “You have to have the nerve to stand in the pocket against another fighter trying to knock your head off,” said Ward. “You have to have the timing to react at exactly the right moment. If you mis-time your reaction by a millisecond, that’s the difference between rolling to get away from a punch and getting nailed hard. It took years and years of Floyd perfecting his craft in the gym that got him to where he is now.”

Mayweather will drift, float and swim against Pacquiao. It’s up to the Filipino to stem the tide, force an engagement and sink the man who has the audacity to call himself The Best Ever.