Knockouts to decide survivors

Six teams remain in contention for the championship of the PBA Philippine Cup as six teams have fallen by the wayside. San Miguel Beer and Rain Or Shine are taking a rest after earning automatic tickets to the semifinals by virtue of finishing 1-2 in the eliminations.

In the first stage of the quarterfinals, the four higher seeds took only a game to dispose of their opponents. History was against the lower seeds which had to win twice to advance to the second stage. In 82 pairings since the 1996 Governors Cup, only 10 lower seeds survived by winning two in a row. Air 21 was the last team to do it at San Miguel Beer’s expense in the Commissioner’s Cup last season.

Alaska encountered some rough sailing before ousting NLEX, 82-78, while Meralco, Talk ‘N’ Text and Barangay Ginebra had little difficulty advancing. The Bolts dethroned Purefoods, 77-65. The Texters blasted Barako Bull, 105-76 and Ginebra crushed Globalport, 95-78.

The second stage of the quarterfinals features two knockout contests. First, Alaska takes on Meralco in a solo game at the Smart Araneta Coliseum, 5 p.m. today. And second, Talk ‘N’ Text battles Ginebra in another lone duel at the Big Dome, 7 p.m. on Tuesday. The Alaska-Meralco winner faces Rain Or Shine in one semis series while the Talk ‘N’ Text-Ginebra survivor faces San Miguel Beer in the other semis series. Both semis series are best-of-seven affairs.

There’s nothing more exciting than a do-or-die faceoff like a Game 7 in a best-of-seven series or a Game 5 in a best-of-five. It’s winner-take-all, meaning no tomorrow for the loser. The knockout format in the second stage of the quarterfinals is sudden-death. You don’t play the odds in a do-or-die game, you go with your best players. You don’t take chances to experiment because one mistake could decide whether you live or die. You take care of every possession and play to your strengths.

Alaska is 3-2 in its last five outings after a sizzling 6-0 start. Could the Aces have peaked too soon? They looked far from sharp in dropping an 85-78 decision to Barako and lost back-to-back to Ginebra and Rain Or Shine. But what’s making Alaska confident in bundling Meralco out is the Aces’ 105-64 romp over the Bolts in the eliminations. That 41-point blowout is hard to forget.

Meralco, however, has regrouped since bowing to the Aces. The Bolts have won their last three contests with high energy on both ends. Coach Norman Black has done an excellent job in generating chemistry on the floor. An “ace” up Black’s sleeve is assistant coach Luigi Trillo who came from the Alaska franchise. Aces coach Alex Compton used to be Trillo’s assistant. It will be interesting to find out how Meralco plans to defend the league’s No. 1 rebounder Calvin Abueva. Black will likely use a platoon of players to give Abueva different looks with Jared Dillinger, Cliff Hodge, Sean Anthony and even Reynel Hugnatan getting the call. The key to defending Abueva is to make him try to beat you by himself. Abueva is a lot more dangerous when he passes but if the defense invites him to go one-on-one, it will disrupt the flow of Alaska’s triangle.

Alaska’s bench seems to be deeper than Meralco’s and Compton will lean on his second unit to provide continuity in the Aces’ full-court pressure defense. Meralco will try to speed up the game with Dillinger, Gary David and Hodge. When Black wants to play the halfcourt set, he’ll go with Mike Cortez and Reynel Hugnatan as his main weapons. Although Alaska walloped Meralco in their previous meeting, it’s 50-50 in their do-or-die game this afternoon.

Both Meralco and Alaska were dumped by Rain Or Shine in the eliminations. The Elasto Painters took care of the Bolts, 107-79, and the Aces, 98-95. Coach Yeng Guiao’s squad has won its last seven assignments and is the league’s hottest contender. A handicap will be rookie Jericho Cruz’ absence for the rest of the playoffs with a fractured ankle.

In the semis, the teams will play a best-of-seven series so it’ll be a chess match throughout the struggle. It’s not like in a knockout game where you throw away your chess pieces and go with your best instincts.

In the other knockout duel, Talk ‘N’ Text and Ginebra are out for blood. There’s no love lost between the teams. Texters coach Joseph Uichico used to call the shots for Ginebra and now, he’s on the other side of the fence. The Tropa had a shaky 1-2 start but the Texters have won their last five, eight of their last nine, and are on a roll. Ginebra is 2-4 in its last six games and like Alaska, appears to be tapering off. Ginebra had a blistering 5-1 start then lost three in a row in a tailspin that worried the Barangay faithful. The good news for Ginebra is the team has now won two of its last three, one over Alaska and the other over Globalport.

Ginebra took down the Texters, 101-81, in their battle during the eliminations but that came early in the conference when the Tropa was still adjusting to Uichico’s system and the Gilas boys were still in recovery mode. Ranidel de Ocampo, for instance, didn’t play in that Ginebra game.

Now, the Tropa is in full force. Kelly Willlams ended a five-game sit-out when he came back to play 5:38 minutes against Barako last Friday. Jayson Castro is back in explosive form – scoring in double figures in every game except when he was held to nine points by Rain Or Shine. Rookies Kevin Alas and Matt Ganuelas-Rosser are playing like vets. But to beat Ginebra, the Texters must be tough in the interior, meaning Rob Reyes, Harvey Carey, Williams, De Ocampo and Jay Washington can’t back down from challenging Greg Slaughter and Japeth Aguilar.

The Texters are No. 1 in the league in offense and three point field goal percentage. Their dribble-drive offense is the engine that revs the Tropa’s scoring machine. Ginebra might try to use the 2-3 zone to take away the penetration and De Ocampo’s post moves. Whatever Ginebra decides to do on defense, coach Jeffrey Cariaso must make sure there are recovery close-outs on the corner shooters. Like in the Meralco-Alaska battle, this is 50-50.